Recent September core CPI printed at 0.3% MoM—hotter than the 0.2% consensus—on broad-based gains in shelter, supercore services, and core goods amid energy pass-through, lifting the year-over-year rate to 2.6%. With the October release due November 10, trader-implied odds favor 0.2% at 42% versus 36% for 0.3%, reflecting expectations that gasoline prices have eased and shelter components will moderate after the prior surge. Leading forecasts, including TD Securities, project 0.21% as core goods and services mean-revert, though persistent supercore momentum and any upside surprises in rents or airfares could sustain the higher print. Market-implied odds capture this uncertainty around the path back to target-consistent inflation.