Recent inflation readings and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have anchored trader expectations for unchanged policy at the Federal Reserve’s June and July meetings. With the benchmark federal funds rate already at 3.5%–3.75% following the April pause, hotter-than-expected CPI prints and elevated oil prices have shifted market-implied odds toward a sustained hold, eliminating near-term easing from futures pricing. The strong 93% consensus for three consecutive pauses reflects this data trajectory and the Fed’s focus on inflation risks over labor-market softening. A sharp downside surprise in upcoming employment or retail-sales releases could reopen cut probabilities, though current momentum suggests the hold path remains the dominant baseline through midsummer.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाPause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.5%
Other 3.5%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.3%
$49,002 वॉल्यूम
$49,002 वॉल्यूम
29 जुल, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.5%
Other 3.5%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.3%
$49,002 वॉल्यूम
$49,002 वॉल्यूम
29 जुल, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,596 वॉल्यूम
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,636 वॉल्यूम
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,568 वॉल्यूम
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,622 वॉल्यूम
1%
Other
$1,595 वॉल्यूम
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have anchored trader expectations for unchanged policy at the Federal Reserve’s June and July meetings. With the benchmark federal funds rate already at 3.5%–3.75% following the April pause, hotter-than-expected CPI prints and elevated oil prices have shifted market-implied odds toward a sustained hold, eliminating near-term easing from futures pricing. The strong 93% consensus for three consecutive pauses reflects this data trajectory and the Fed’s focus on inflation risks over labor-market softening. A sharp downside surprise in upcoming employment or retail-sales releases could reopen cut probabilities, though current momentum suggests the hold path remains the dominant baseline through midsummer.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$49,002समाप्ति तिथि
29 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have anchored trader expectations for unchanged policy at the Federal Reserve’s June and July meetings. With the benchmark federal funds rate already at 3.5%–3.75% following the April pause, hotter-than-expected CPI prints and elevated oil prices have shifted market-implied odds toward a sustained hold, eliminating near-term easing from futures pricing. The strong 93% consensus for three consecutive pauses reflects this data trajectory and the Fed’s focus on inflation risks over labor-market softening. A sharp downside surprise in upcoming employment or retail-sales releases could reopen cut probabilities, though current momentum suggests the hold path remains the dominant baseline through midsummer.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
वॉल्यूम
$49,002समाप्ति तिथि
29 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation readings and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have anchored trader expectations for unchanged policy at the Federal Reserve’s June and July meetings. With the benchmark federal funds rate already at 3.5%–3.75% following the April pause, hotter-than-expected CPI prints and elevated oil prices have shifted market-implied odds toward a sustained hold, eliminating near-term easing from futures pricing. The strong 93% consensus for three consecutive pauses reflects this data trajectory and the Fed’s focus on inflation risks over labor-market softening. A sharp downside surprise in upcoming employment or retail-sales releases could reopen cut probabilities, though current momentum suggests the hold path remains the dominant baseline through midsummer.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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