Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—driven by surging energy costs—has lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike, yet Polymarket traders price a 68.5% probability against any increase in 2026, reflecting the FOMC's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target reaffirmed at its divided April 29 meeting. Stable unemployment at 4.3% and modest 115,000 job gains signal a cooling labor market without distress, aligning with the March dot plot's median projection of 3.4% fed funds by year-end, implying potential easing. Key catalysts include upcoming June FOMC and May PCE data, which could shift consensus if inflation reaccelerates.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
$1,099,324 वॉल्यूम
$1,099,324 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$1,099,324 वॉल्यूम
$1,099,324 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—driven by surging energy costs—has lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike, yet Polymarket traders price a 68.5% probability against any increase in 2026, reflecting the FOMC's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target reaffirmed at its divided April 29 meeting. Stable unemployment at 4.3% and modest 115,000 job gains signal a cooling labor market without distress, aligning with the March dot plot's median projection of 3.4% fed funds by year-end, implying potential easing. Key catalysts include upcoming June FOMC and May PCE data, which could shift consensus if inflation reaccelerates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,099,324समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—driven by surging energy costs—has lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike, yet Polymarket traders price a 68.5% probability against any increase in 2026, reflecting the FOMC's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target reaffirmed at its divided April 29 meeting. Stable unemployment at 4.3% and modest 115,000 job gains signal a cooling labor market without distress, aligning with the March dot plot's median projection of 3.4% fed funds by year-end, implying potential easing. Key catalysts include upcoming June FOMC and May PCE data, which could shift consensus if inflation reaccelerates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$1,099,324समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—driven by surging energy costs—has lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike, yet Polymarket traders price a 68.5% probability against any increase in 2026, reflecting the FOMC's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target reaffirmed at its divided April 29 meeting. Stable unemployment at 4.3% and modest 115,000 job gains signal a cooling labor market without distress, aligning with the March dot plot's median projection of 3.4% fed funds by year-end, implying potential easing. Key catalysts include upcoming June FOMC and May PCE data, which could shift consensus if inflation reaccelerates.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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