Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy price shocks from Middle East supply disruptions, remains the dominant driver keeping market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026 near even at 55.5%. The federal funds rate has held steady at 3.50-3.75% through July, with July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, while three FOMC members dissented in favor of tightening. Mixed labor data, including July job losses, and a resilient economy have produced closely contested pricing in fed funds futures, with September probabilities fluctuating between 38% and 65%. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, followed by October and December gatherings, represents the key near-term catalysts that could shift the aggregated trader consensus reflected in these odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
56% संभावना
$7,876,686 वॉल्यूम
$7,876,686 वॉल्यूम
8 दिस, 2026
हाँ
56% संभावना
$7,876,686 वॉल्यूम
$7,876,686 वॉल्यूम
8 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy price shocks from Middle East supply disruptions, remains the dominant driver keeping market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026 near even at 55.5%. The federal funds rate has held steady at 3.50-3.75% through July, with July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, while three FOMC members dissented in favor of tightening. Mixed labor data, including July job losses, and a resilient economy have produced closely contested pricing in fed funds futures, with September probabilities fluctuating between 38% and 65%. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, followed by October and December gatherings, represents the key near-term catalysts that could shift the aggregated trader consensus reflected in these odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$7,876,686समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy price shocks from Middle East supply disruptions, remains the dominant driver keeping market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026 near even at 55.5%. The federal funds rate has held steady at 3.50-3.75% through July, with July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, while three FOMC members dissented in favor of tightening. Mixed labor data, including July job losses, and a resilient economy have produced closely contested pricing in fed funds futures, with September probabilities fluctuating between 38% and 65%. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, followed by October and December gatherings, represents the key near-term catalysts that could shift the aggregated trader consensus reflected in these odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$7,876,686समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy price shocks from Middle East supply disruptions, remains the dominant driver keeping market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026 near even at 55.5%. The federal funds rate has held steady at 3.50-3.75% through July, with July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, while three FOMC members dissented in favor of tightening. Mixed labor data, including July job losses, and a resilient economy have produced closely contested pricing in fed funds futures, with September probabilities fluctuating between 38% and 65%. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, followed by October and December gatherings, represents the key near-term catalysts that could shift the aggregated trader consensus reflected in these odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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