Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a highest temperature in Miami on May 18 most likely falling in the 86–87 °F range, consistent with the market-implied 47.5 % probability. Late-spring solar insolation combined with light easterly flow and modest subtropical moisture supports afternoon readings near the seasonal normal of 85–87 °F, while scattered showers may limit further warming and keep the 88–89 °F bin at 28.5 %. Current ensemble forecasts show limited spread around these values, with no strong signals for either a pronounced cool front or rapid drying that would push extremes outside the 84–89 °F window.