Diverging guidance from the GFS and ECMWF models currently anchors the tightest market-implied odds on the 64–65°F and 62–63°F bins for New York City’s overnight low on May 17, with recent ensemble means clustering near 62–65°F. A weak high-pressure ridge and partly cloudy skies are expected to limit radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures several degrees above the mid-May climatological average of the upper 40s to low 50s recorded at Central Park. Model spread remains the dominant uncertainty factor, as small differences in cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture could shift the outcome by 1–2°F. Updated runs overnight will narrow the range ahead of the National Weather Service’s final verification.