Seismic monitoring by the USGS and regional networks confirms one magnitude 6.5 earthquake struck the northeastern Caribbean on May 16, near Antigua and Barbuda at approximately 31 km depth, with shaking reported across multiple islands. No additional events reaching the 6.5 threshold were recorded during the May 11–17 window, aligning with the market’s 91% implied probability for exactly one occurrence. Global averages show roughly 1–2 magnitude 6.5+ quakes per week, and the absence of concurrent activity in high-seismicity zones such as the Pacific Ring of Fire or major subduction boundaries reinforced trader consensus. A late revision of the Caribbean event below 6.5 or an undetected aftershock sequence could still shift the final tally if official catalogs are updated before resolution.