Elevated inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with the market-implied probability for no easing now at 70.3%. Recent data showing March CPI rising to 3.3% and April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs while unemployment held at 4.3% have reinforced expectations that the Fed will maintain its 3.50%-3.75% target range through year-end. Geopolitical factors, including energy price impacts from Middle East developments, have further tilted the balance of risks toward persistent above-target inflation. This positioning aligns with hawkish shifts in CME FedWatch pricing and recent broker forecasts delaying any easing into 2027, though upcoming June FOMC deliberations and May inflation releases could still introduce volatility around these probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया0 (0 बीपीएस) 70.2%
1 (25 बीपीएस) 16%
2 (50 बीपीएस) 7%
3 (75 बीपीएस) 2.8%
$26,967,945 वॉल्यूम
$26,967,945 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0 (0 बीपीएस)
70%
1 (25 बीपीएस)
16%
2 (50 बीपीएस)
7%
3 (75 बीपीएस)
3%
4 (100 बीपीएस)
1%
5 (125 बीपीएस)
1%
6 (150 बीपीएस)
1%
7 (175 बीपीएस)
<1%
8 (200 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स)
<1%
9 (225 बीपीएस)
<1%
10 (250 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स)
<1%
11 (275 बीपीएस)
<1%
12+ (300+ बीपीएस)
1%
0 (0 बीपीएस) 70.2%
1 (25 बीपीएस) 16%
2 (50 बीपीएस) 7%
3 (75 बीपीएस) 2.8%
$26,967,945 वॉल्यूम
$26,967,945 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0 (0 बीपीएस)
$4,190,474 वॉल्यूम
70%
1 (25 बीपीएस)
$1,245,308 वॉल्यूम
16%
2 (50 बीपीएस)
$1,204,676 वॉल्यूम
7%
3 (75 बीपीएस)
$1,114,226 वॉल्यूम
3%
4 (100 बीपीएस)
$1,198,541 वॉल्यूम
1%
5 (125 बीपीएस)
$1,420,482 वॉल्यूम
1%
6 (150 बीपीएस)
$2,497,315 वॉल्यूम
1%
7 (175 बीपीएस)
$1,328,186 वॉल्यूम
<1%
8 (200 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स)
$1,738,325 वॉल्यूम
<1%
9 (225 बीपीएस)
$2,457,209 वॉल्यूम
<1%
10 (250 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स)
$3,126,492 वॉल्यूम
<1%
11 (275 बीपीएस)
$3,277,095 वॉल्यूम
<1%
12+ (300+ बीपीएस)
$2,169,616 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with the market-implied probability for no easing now at 70.3%. Recent data showing March CPI rising to 3.3% and April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs while unemployment held at 4.3% have reinforced expectations that the Fed will maintain its 3.50%-3.75% target range through year-end. Geopolitical factors, including energy price impacts from Middle East developments, have further tilted the balance of risks toward persistent above-target inflation. This positioning aligns with hawkish shifts in CME FedWatch pricing and recent broker forecasts delaying any easing into 2027, though upcoming June FOMC deliberations and May inflation releases could still introduce volatility around these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$26,967,945समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with the market-implied probability for no easing now at 70.3%. Recent data showing March CPI rising to 3.3% and April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs while unemployment held at 4.3% have reinforced expectations that the Fed will maintain its 3.50%-3.75% target range through year-end. Geopolitical factors, including energy price impacts from Middle East developments, have further tilted the balance of risks toward persistent above-target inflation. This positioning aligns with hawkish shifts in CME FedWatch pricing and recent broker forecasts delaying any easing into 2027, though upcoming June FOMC deliberations and May inflation releases could still introduce volatility around these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
वॉल्यूम
$26,967,945समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with the market-implied probability for no easing now at 70.3%. Recent data showing March CPI rising to 3.3% and April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs while unemployment held at 4.3% have reinforced expectations that the Fed will maintain its 3.50%-3.75% target range through year-end. Geopolitical factors, including energy price impacts from Middle East developments, have further tilted the balance of risks toward persistent above-target inflation. This positioning aligns with hawkish shifts in CME FedWatch pricing and recent broker forecasts delaying any easing into 2027, though upcoming June FOMC deliberations and May inflation releases could still introduce volatility around these probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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