Polymarket traders price a 69.3% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026—equating to no basis point reductions—reflecting hawkish sentiment after April's consumer price index surged 3.8% year-over-year on May 12, up from March's 3.3% and exceeding forecasts amid spiking energy costs from geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict. Core CPI held at 2.8%, well above the Fed's 2% target, reinforcing the April 29 FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid four dissents and upward-revised inflation projections. Strong labor data has prompted Goldman Sachs and BofA to delay cut forecasts, aligning with CME FedWatch's near-zero odds for easing through year-end and a 37% hike risk. June 17 FOMC projections and upcoming jobs reports remain key catalysts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया0 (0 बीपीएस) 69.2%
1 (25 बीपीएस) 17%
2 (50 बीपीएस) 7%
3 (75 बीपीएस) 3.0%
$25,899,853 वॉल्यूम
$25,899,853 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0 (0 बीपीएस)
69%
1 (25 बीपीएस)
17%
2 (50 बीपीएस)
7%
3 (75 बीपीएस)
3%
4 (100 बीपीएस)
1%
5 (125 बीपीएस)
1%
6 (150 बीपीएस)
1%
7 (175 बीपीएस)
<1%
8 (200 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स)
<1%
9 (225 बीपीएस)
<1%
10 (250 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स)
<1%
11 (275 बीपीएस)
<1%
12+ (300+ बीपीएस)
1%
0 (0 बीपीएस) 69.2%
1 (25 बीपीएस) 17%
2 (50 बीपीएस) 7%
3 (75 बीपीएस) 3.0%
$25,899,853 वॉल्यूम
$25,899,853 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0 (0 बीपीएस)
$4,054,821 वॉल्यूम
69%
1 (25 बीपीएस)
$1,212,602 वॉल्यूम
17%
2 (50 बीपीएस)
$1,170,364 वॉल्यूम
7%
3 (75 बीपीएस)
$1,063,352 वॉल्यूम
3%
4 (100 बीपीएस)
$1,142,184 वॉल्यूम
1%
5 (125 बीपीएस)
$1,376,780 वॉल्यूम
1%
6 (150 बीपीएस)
$2,432,530 वॉल्यूम
1%
7 (175 बीपीएस)
$1,089,691 वॉल्यूम
<1%
8 (200 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स)
$1,683,638 वॉल्यूम
<1%
9 (225 बीपीएस)
$2,400,417 वॉल्यूम
<1%
10 (250 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स)
$3,010,173 वॉल्यूम
<1%
11 (275 बीपीएस)
$3,178,068 वॉल्यूम
<1%
12+ (300+ बीपीएस)
$2,085,530 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 69.3% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026—equating to no basis point reductions—reflecting hawkish sentiment after April's consumer price index surged 3.8% year-over-year on May 12, up from March's 3.3% and exceeding forecasts amid spiking energy costs from geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict. Core CPI held at 2.8%, well above the Fed's 2% target, reinforcing the April 29 FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid four dissents and upward-revised inflation projections. Strong labor data has prompted Goldman Sachs and BofA to delay cut forecasts, aligning with CME FedWatch's near-zero odds for easing through year-end and a 37% hike risk. June 17 FOMC projections and upcoming jobs reports remain key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$25,899,853समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 69.3% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026—equating to no basis point reductions—reflecting hawkish sentiment after April's consumer price index surged 3.8% year-over-year on May 12, up from March's 3.3% and exceeding forecasts amid spiking energy costs from geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict. Core CPI held at 2.8%, well above the Fed's 2% target, reinforcing the April 29 FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid four dissents and upward-revised inflation projections. Strong labor data has prompted Goldman Sachs and BofA to delay cut forecasts, aligning with CME FedWatch's near-zero odds for easing through year-end and a 37% hike risk. June 17 FOMC projections and upcoming jobs reports remain key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
वॉल्यूम
$25,899,853समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 69.3% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026—equating to no basis point reductions—reflecting hawkish sentiment after April's consumer price index surged 3.8% year-over-year on May 12, up from March's 3.3% and exceeding forecasts amid spiking energy costs from geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict. Core CPI held at 2.8%, well above the Fed's 2% target, reinforcing the April 29 FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid four dissents and upward-revised inflation projections. Strong labor data has prompted Goldman Sachs and BofA to delay cut forecasts, aligning with CME FedWatch's near-zero odds for easing through year-end and a 37% hike risk. June 17 FOMC projections and upcoming jobs reports remain key catalysts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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