SpaceX's rapid Falcon 9 cadence, supported by reusable boosters and quick ground processing at Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, underpins the market's tight clustering between 12 and 13 total launches for May. With three missions completed early in the month and a dense remaining manifest of Starlink deployments scheduled for May 19, 21, 23, and 25, plus a Starship flight test window opening around May 19, traders see high feasibility for reaching the higher end of historical monthly rates. Potential range constraints, weather holds, or minor technical scrubs introduce the narrow gap between 12 and 13, while lower outcomes remain discounted absent major delays.