Recent above-average tornado activity through mid-May 2026, with roughly 530–560 confirmed reports including multiple EF2–EF3 events in the Midwest and Southeast, has positioned the 1,250+ outcome as the clear market leader at 81% implied probability. The Storm Prediction Center’s frequent enhanced-risk convective outlooks, driven by a northward-shifted jet stream and repeated favorable wind shear and instability setups, have sustained this elevated pace compared with the 1991–2020 climatological average of about 1,200 annual tornadoes. Peak-season months remain ahead, yet early-year data shifts already favor totals well above the long-term median while leaving room for model divergence in summer steering patterns.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में अमेरिका में कितने बवंडर हैं?
2026 में अमेरिका में कितने बवंडर हैं?
1250+ 81%
<950 4.8%
1050–1099 4.1%
1150–1199 3.9%
$72,212 वॉल्यूम
$72,212 वॉल्यूम
10 जन, 2027
<950
5%
950–999
3%
1000–1049
1%
1050–1099
4%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
4%
1200–1249
31%
1250+
81%
1250+ 81%
<950 4.8%
1050–1099 4.1%
1150–1199 3.9%
$72,212 वॉल्यूम
$72,212 वॉल्यूम
10 जन, 2027
<950
$22,427 वॉल्यूम
5%
950–999
$2,976 वॉल्यूम
3%
1000–1049
$2,424 वॉल्यूम
1%
1050–1099
$7,841 वॉल्यूम
4%
1100–1149
$2,041 वॉल्यूम
3%
1150–1199
$2,650 वॉल्यूम
4%
1200–1249
$15,173 वॉल्यूम
31%
1250+
$16,681 वॉल्यूम
81%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent above-average tornado activity through mid-May 2026, with roughly 530–560 confirmed reports including multiple EF2–EF3 events in the Midwest and Southeast, has positioned the 1,250+ outcome as the clear market leader at 81% implied probability. The Storm Prediction Center’s frequent enhanced-risk convective outlooks, driven by a northward-shifted jet stream and repeated favorable wind shear and instability setups, have sustained this elevated pace compared with the 1991–2020 climatological average of about 1,200 annual tornadoes. Peak-season months remain ahead, yet early-year data shifts already favor totals well above the long-term median while leaving room for model divergence in summer steering patterns.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$72,212समाप्ति तिथि
10 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent above-average tornado activity through mid-May 2026, with roughly 530–560 confirmed reports including multiple EF2–EF3 events in the Midwest and Southeast, has positioned the 1,250+ outcome as the clear market leader at 81% implied probability. The Storm Prediction Center’s frequent enhanced-risk convective outlooks, driven by a northward-shifted jet stream and repeated favorable wind shear and instability setups, have sustained this elevated pace compared with the 1991–2020 climatological average of about 1,200 annual tornadoes. Peak-season months remain ahead, yet early-year data shifts already favor totals well above the long-term median while leaving room for model divergence in summer steering patterns.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
वॉल्यूम
$72,212समाप्ति तिथि
10 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent above-average tornado activity through mid-May 2026, with roughly 530–560 confirmed reports including multiple EF2–EF3 events in the Midwest and Southeast, has positioned the 1,250+ outcome as the clear market leader at 81% implied probability. The Storm Prediction Center’s frequent enhanced-risk convective outlooks, driven by a northward-shifted jet stream and repeated favorable wind shear and instability setups, have sustained this elevated pace compared with the 1991–2020 climatological average of about 1,200 annual tornadoes. Peak-season months remain ahead, yet early-year data shifts already favor totals well above the long-term median while leaving room for model divergence in summer steering patterns.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न