Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran’s supreme leadership in March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei’s death in late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. He sustained reported injuries in the same attack and has issued only written statements since, with no verified public appearances, speeches, or footage released. Regime sources cite security concerns, while independent reporting highlights persistent health speculation and limited high-level contact, including zero cabinet meetings as of early August. This extended absence—spanning mourning ceremonies, religious observances, and wartime messaging—has shaped trader assessments of the likelihood of a confirmed public appearance by upcoming resolution dates. Any verified video, in-person event, or official footage within the window would resolve the market; continued opacity or health-related delays would sustain low implied probabilities.