Strong consensus forecasts for positive U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.5% in 2026 underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative annual growth. Recent data, including 1.5% annualized expansion in Q2 2026 and resilient investment in AI-driven capex alongside fiscal tailwinds, support this view, as do projections from the CBO, Goldman Sachs, and Vanguard. Labor market stability near 4.1% unemployment and moderating inflation have kept monetary policy expectations balanced without signaling contraction. Tail risks such as sharper consumer spending weakness, escalated trade policy effects, or labor market deterioration could still pressure outcomes, though current indicators show limited signs of these materializing before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में नकारात्मक जीडीपी वृद्धि?
2026 में नकारात्मक जीडीपी वृद्धि?
हाँ
4% संभावना
$32,234 वॉल्यूम
$32,234 वॉल्यूम
29 जन, 2027
हाँ
4% संभावना
$32,234 वॉल्यूम
$32,234 वॉल्यूम
29 जन, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus forecasts for positive U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.5% in 2026 underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative annual growth. Recent data, including 1.5% annualized expansion in Q2 2026 and resilient investment in AI-driven capex alongside fiscal tailwinds, support this view, as do projections from the CBO, Goldman Sachs, and Vanguard. Labor market stability near 4.1% unemployment and moderating inflation have kept monetary policy expectations balanced without signaling contraction. Tail risks such as sharper consumer spending weakness, escalated trade policy effects, or labor market deterioration could still pressure outcomes, though current indicators show limited signs of these materializing before year-end.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$32,234समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus forecasts for positive U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.5% in 2026 underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative annual growth. Recent data, including 1.5% annualized expansion in Q2 2026 and resilient investment in AI-driven capex alongside fiscal tailwinds, support this view, as do projections from the CBO, Goldman Sachs, and Vanguard. Labor market stability near 4.1% unemployment and moderating inflation have kept monetary policy expectations balanced without signaling contraction. Tail risks such as sharper consumer spending weakness, escalated trade policy effects, or labor market deterioration could still pressure outcomes, though current indicators show limited signs of these materializing before year-end.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$32,234समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong consensus forecasts for positive U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.5% in 2026 underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative annual growth. Recent data, including 1.5% annualized expansion in Q2 2026 and resilient investment in AI-driven capex alongside fiscal tailwinds, support this view, as do projections from the CBO, Goldman Sachs, and Vanguard. Labor market stability near 4.1% unemployment and moderating inflation have kept monetary policy expectations balanced without signaling contraction. Tail risks such as sharper consumer spending weakness, escalated trade policy effects, or labor market deterioration could still pressure outcomes, though current indicators show limited signs of these materializing before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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