Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 93.7 percent market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, accelerating from the 0.5 percent pace in the fourth quarter of 2025 amid a rebound in investment and government spending. Major banks project full-year 2026 growth between 2.0 percent and 2.3 percent, supported by AI-related capital expenditures and policy tailwinds, though elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions pose downside risks. A sharper or prolonged oil shock could compress consumer spending and push growth closer to zero, representing the primary scenario that might still alter the current trader consensus.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में नकारात्मक जीडीपी वृद्धि?
2026 में नकारात्मक जीडीपी वृद्धि?
हाँ
$26,508 वॉल्यूम
$26,508 वॉल्यूम
29 जन, 2027
हाँ
$26,508 वॉल्यूम
$26,508 वॉल्यूम
29 जन, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 93.7 percent market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, accelerating from the 0.5 percent pace in the fourth quarter of 2025 amid a rebound in investment and government spending. Major banks project full-year 2026 growth between 2.0 percent and 2.3 percent, supported by AI-related capital expenditures and policy tailwinds, though elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions pose downside risks. A sharper or prolonged oil shock could compress consumer spending and push growth closer to zero, representing the primary scenario that might still alter the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$26,508समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 93.7 percent market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, accelerating from the 0.5 percent pace in the fourth quarter of 2025 amid a rebound in investment and government spending. Major banks project full-year 2026 growth between 2.0 percent and 2.3 percent, supported by AI-related capital expenditures and policy tailwinds, though elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions pose downside risks. A sharper or prolonged oil shock could compress consumer spending and push growth closer to zero, representing the primary scenario that might still alter the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$26,508समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 93.7 percent market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, accelerating from the 0.5 percent pace in the fourth quarter of 2025 amid a rebound in investment and government spending. Major banks project full-year 2026 growth between 2.0 percent and 2.3 percent, supported by AI-related capital expenditures and policy tailwinds, though elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions pose downside risks. A sharper or prolonged oil shock could compress consumer spending and push growth closer to zero, representing the primary scenario that might still alter the current trader consensus.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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