The absence of any Department of Justice action or confirmed investigation since Tucker Carlson’s March 2026 public claims of a potential Foreign Agents Registration Act referral explains the 98.3 percent trader consensus against federal charges. Administration officials quickly dismissed the allegations as unfounded, with no grand jury proceedings, indictments, or formal referrals reported in the subsequent two months amid ongoing U.S.-Middle East tensions. Historical FARA enforcement patterns require substantial evidence and extended timelines, factors absent here. While late disclosures, a special counsel appointment, or escalated diplomatic developments could theoretically shift the outlook before the June 30, 2026 resolution date, significant evidentiary and procedural barriers continue to support the current implied probability.