Recent July CPI data showing core prices rising 0.2% month-over-month, combined with June’s softer-than-expected 0.1% Core PCE MoM print, anchors trader expectations for the August 26 release. This sequence supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 0.2% at 63.5% implied probability, reflecting consensus forecasts and subdued momentum in services and goods components. Broader labor-market cooling and stable Treasury yields reinforce views of contained underlying inflation near the Fed’s preferred trajectory, with limited volatility priced into adjacent outcomes like 0.3% at 30.5%. Any surprise would likely stem from revisions in the BEA’s detailed expenditure breakdown or shifts in healthcare and shelter categories.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui0.2% 64%
0.3% 31%
0.1% 6.6%
0.4%+ 2.6%
$30,609 Vol.
$30,609 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
≤-0.2%
<1%
-0.1%
<1%
0.0%
<1%
0.1%
7%
0.2%
64%
0.3%
31%
0.4%+
3%
0.2% 64%
0.3% 31%
0.1% 6.6%
0.4%+ 2.6%
$30,609 Vol.
$30,609 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
≤-0.2%
$606 Vol.
<1%
-0.1%
$831 Vol.
<1%
0.0%
$1,045 Vol.
<1%
0.1%
$3,138 Vol.
7%
0.2%
$4,481 Vol.
64%
0.3%
$17,426 Vol.
31%
0.4%+
$3,082 Vol.
3%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July CPI data showing core prices rising 0.2% month-over-month, combined with June’s softer-than-expected 0.1% Core PCE MoM print, anchors trader expectations for the August 26 release. This sequence supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 0.2% at 63.5% implied probability, reflecting consensus forecasts and subdued momentum in services and goods components. Broader labor-market cooling and stable Treasury yields reinforce views of contained underlying inflation near the Fed’s preferred trajectory, with limited volatility priced into adjacent outcomes like 0.3% at 30.5%. Any surprise would likely stem from revisions in the BEA’s detailed expenditure breakdown or shifts in healthcare and shelter categories.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$30,609Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 26, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July CPI data showing core prices rising 0.2% month-over-month, combined with June’s softer-than-expected 0.1% Core PCE MoM print, anchors trader expectations for the August 26 release. This sequence supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 0.2% at 63.5% implied probability, reflecting consensus forecasts and subdued momentum in services and goods components. Broader labor-market cooling and stable Treasury yields reinforce views of contained underlying inflation near the Fed’s preferred trajectory, with limited volatility priced into adjacent outcomes like 0.3% at 30.5%. Any surprise would likely stem from revisions in the BEA’s detailed expenditure breakdown or shifts in healthcare and shelter categories.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$30,609Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 26, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data showing core prices rising 0.2% month-over-month, combined with June’s softer-than-expected 0.1% Core PCE MoM print, anchors trader expectations for the August 26 release. This sequence supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 0.2% at 63.5% implied probability, reflecting consensus forecasts and subdued momentum in services and goods components. Broader labor-market cooling and stable Treasury yields reinforce views of contained underlying inflation near the Fed’s preferred trajectory, with limited volatility priced into adjacent outcomes like 0.3% at 30.5%. Any surprise would likely stem from revisions in the BEA’s detailed expenditure breakdown or shifts in healthcare and shelter categories.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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