The May 2026 disclosure of a Justice Department inquiry into potential perjury by E. Jean Carroll during her civil suits against President Trump—centered on statements about outside funding from Reid Hoffman’s nonprofit—remains the dominant factor in trader assessments of federal charges. Subsequent clarifications from the Northern District of Illinois U.S. Attorney’s office stated no criminal investigation was opened into Carroll herself, with focus instead appearing directed at the nonprofit or funding disclosures. No indictment or further public steps have occurred in the ensuing months, despite the administration’s pattern of scrutiny toward Trump adversaries. The Supreme Court’s June and August 2026 denials of Trump’s appeals in the underlying cases, which left the $5 million verdict intact, have not altered the investigative timeline or produced new prosecutorial signals. Traders weigh the probe’s early stage and procedural hurdles against the possibility of future grand jury developments or policy shifts within the resolution window.