Recent model consensus from sources including the GFS and regional guidance points to a high temperature in Beijing on September 17 near or slightly above the long-term average of 26°C, with southerly flow advecting warmer air while increasing cloud cover limits peak heating. This setup supports the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 29–32°C, as modest differences in predicted cloud thickness, timing of any breaks, or boundary-layer mixing could shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Light winds and dew points near 15–18°C further constrain extreme values, keeping probabilities for 33°C or higher below 6%. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble guidance expected over the next 24 hours represent the key near-term catalyst for any rebalancing.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Beijing on September 17?
Highest temperature in Beijing on September 17?
30°C 28%
31°C 23%
29°C 21%
32°C 13%
BARU
BARU
Sep 17, 2026
25°C or below
2%
26°C
1%
27°C
5%
28°C
12%
29°C
21%
30°C
28%
31°C
23%
32°C
13%
33°C
11%
34°C
10%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 28%
31°C 23%
29°C 21%
32°C 13%
BARU
BARU
Sep 17, 2026
25°C or below
$87 Vol.
2%
26°C
$13 Vol.
1%
27°C
$7 Vol.
5%
28°C
$39 Vol.
12%
29°C
$5 Vol.
21%
30°C
$10 Vol.
28%
31°C
$58 Vol.
23%
32°C
$58 Vol.
13%
33°C
$0 Vol.
11%
34°C
$0 Vol.
10%
35°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including the GFS and regional guidance points to a high temperature in Beijing on September 17 near or slightly above the long-term average of 26°C, with southerly flow advecting warmer air while increasing cloud cover limits peak heating. This setup supports the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 29–32°C, as modest differences in predicted cloud thickness, timing of any breaks, or boundary-layer mixing could shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Light winds and dew points near 15–18°C further constrain extreme values, keeping probabilities for 33°C or higher below 6%. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble guidance expected over the next 24 hours represent the key near-term catalyst for any rebalancing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$278Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including the GFS and regional guidance points to a high temperature in Beijing on September 17 near or slightly above the long-term average of 26°C, with southerly flow advecting warmer air while increasing cloud cover limits peak heating. This setup supports the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 29–32°C, as modest differences in predicted cloud thickness, timing of any breaks, or boundary-layer mixing could shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Light winds and dew points near 15–18°C further constrain extreme values, keeping probabilities for 33°C or higher below 6%. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble guidance expected over the next 24 hours represent the key near-term catalyst for any rebalancing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$278Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources including the GFS and regional guidance points to a high temperature in Beijing on September 17 near or slightly above the long-term average of 26°C, with southerly flow advecting warmer air while increasing cloud cover limits peak heating. This setup supports the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 29–32°C, as modest differences in predicted cloud thickness, timing of any breaks, or boundary-layer mixing could shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Light winds and dew points near 15–18°C further constrain extreme values, keeping probabilities for 33°C or higher below 6%. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble guidance expected over the next 24 hours represent the key near-term catalyst for any rebalancing.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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