Latest forecast models from sources including the National Meteorological Center of China and international ensembles indicate a highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 15 most likely near 31°C, consistent with the market's leading 34.5% implied probability. Typical mid-September conditions feature daytime highs averaging 31–32°C, moderated by easterly flow, high humidity, and scattered convective showers that can suppress peak readings. Recent model runs show some spread, with a subset projecting brief clearing that could allow 33–34°C while others emphasize persistent cloud cover and rainfall keeping values at or below 30°C. This uncertainty, reflected in the broad probability distribution, centers on steering patterns and timing of any tropical moisture influx ahead of final verification.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Shenzhen on September 15?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 15?
31°C 34%
32°C 24%
30°C 15%
33°C 11%
BARU
BARU
Sep 15, 2026
26°C or below
2%
27°C
4%
28°C
8%
29°C
9%
30°C
15%
31°C
34%
32°C
24%
33°C
12%
34°C
10%
35°C
8%
36°C or higher
2%
31°C 34%
32°C 24%
30°C 15%
33°C 11%
BARU
BARU
Sep 15, 2026
26°C or below
$10 Vol.
2%
27°C
$10 Vol.
4%
28°C
$18 Vol.
8%
29°C
$60 Vol.
9%
30°C
$0 Vol.
15%
31°C
$0 Vol.
34%
32°C
$4 Vol.
24%
33°C
$85 Vol.
12%
34°C
$25 Vol.
10%
35°C
$36 Vol.
8%
36°C or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast models from sources including the National Meteorological Center of China and international ensembles indicate a highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 15 most likely near 31°C, consistent with the market's leading 34.5% implied probability. Typical mid-September conditions feature daytime highs averaging 31–32°C, moderated by easterly flow, high humidity, and scattered convective showers that can suppress peak readings. Recent model runs show some spread, with a subset projecting brief clearing that could allow 33–34°C while others emphasize persistent cloud cover and rainfall keeping values at or below 30°C. This uncertainty, reflected in the broad probability distribution, centers on steering patterns and timing of any tropical moisture influx ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ET
Volume
$258Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast models from sources including the National Meteorological Center of China and international ensembles indicate a highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 15 most likely near 31°C, consistent with the market's leading 34.5% implied probability. Typical mid-September conditions feature daytime highs averaging 31–32°C, moderated by easterly flow, high humidity, and scattered convective showers that can suppress peak readings. Recent model runs show some spread, with a subset projecting brief clearing that could allow 33–34°C while others emphasize persistent cloud cover and rainfall keeping values at or below 30°C. This uncertainty, reflected in the broad probability distribution, centers on steering patterns and timing of any tropical moisture influx ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$258Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecast models from sources including the National Meteorological Center of China and international ensembles indicate a highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 15 most likely near 31°C, consistent with the market's leading 34.5% implied probability. Typical mid-September conditions feature daytime highs averaging 31–32°C, moderated by easterly flow, high humidity, and scattered convective showers that can suppress peak readings. Recent model runs show some spread, with a subset projecting brief clearing that could allow 33–34°C while others emphasize persistent cloud cover and rainfall keeping values at or below 30°C. This uncertainty, reflected in the broad probability distribution, centers on steering patterns and timing of any tropical moisture influx ahead of final verification.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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