**Consensus among numerical weather models supports a daily maximum near 29°C for Beijing on September 15 under clear, dry conditions with light southerly winds.** Multiple forecasts, including those from Yr.no and international sources, project highs of 28–30°C (roughly 82–86°F) following today’s observed peak around 26–27°C, driven by stable high pressure and minimal cloud cover. This alignment of model runs on the exact temperature threshold explains the market’s concentration of implied probability on 29°C (50.5%), with secondary weight on 28°C and 30°C. Traders are effectively pricing the most likely outcome from the current forecast ensemble, which shows no precipitation and only modest day-to-day warming typical of mid-September climatology in the region. Updated model guidance or observational shifts ahead of resolution could still adjust the final reading within a narrow range.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Beijing on September 15?
Highest temperature in Beijing on September 15?
29°C 51%
28°C 22%
30°C 21%
31°C 6%
BARU
BARU
Sep 15, 2026
25°C or below
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
5%
28°C
22%
29°C
51%
30°C
21%
31°C
6%
32°C
1%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
1%
29°C 51%
28°C 22%
30°C 21%
31°C 6%
BARU
BARU
Sep 15, 2026
25°C or below
$62 Vol.
1%
26°C
$38 Vol.
1%
27°C
$353 Vol.
5%
28°C
$1,065 Vol.
22%
29°C
$1,631 Vol.
51%
30°C
$820 Vol.
21%
31°C
$312 Vol.
6%
32°C
$348 Vol.
1%
33°C
$48 Vol.
1%
34°C
$66 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$183 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Consensus among numerical weather models supports a daily maximum near 29°C for Beijing on September 15 under clear, dry conditions with light southerly winds.** Multiple forecasts, including those from Yr.no and international sources, project highs of 28–30°C (roughly 82–86°F) following today’s observed peak around 26–27°C, driven by stable high pressure and minimal cloud cover. This alignment of model runs on the exact temperature threshold explains the market’s concentration of implied probability on 29°C (50.5%), with secondary weight on 28°C and 30°C. Traders are effectively pricing the most likely outcome from the current forecast ensemble, which shows no precipitation and only modest day-to-day warming typical of mid-September climatology in the region. Updated model guidance or observational shifts ahead of resolution could still adjust the final reading within a narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ET
Volume
$4,783Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Consensus among numerical weather models supports a daily maximum near 29°C for Beijing on September 15 under clear, dry conditions with light southerly winds.** Multiple forecasts, including those from Yr.no and international sources, project highs of 28–30°C (roughly 82–86°F) following today’s observed peak around 26–27°C, driven by stable high pressure and minimal cloud cover. This alignment of model runs on the exact temperature threshold explains the market’s concentration of implied probability on 29°C (50.5%), with secondary weight on 28°C and 30°C. Traders are effectively pricing the most likely outcome from the current forecast ensemble, which shows no precipitation and only modest day-to-day warming typical of mid-September climatology in the region. Updated model guidance or observational shifts ahead of resolution could still adjust the final reading within a narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,783Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Consensus among numerical weather models supports a daily maximum near 29°C for Beijing on September 15 under clear, dry conditions with light southerly winds.** Multiple forecasts, including those from Yr.no and international sources, project highs of 28–30°C (roughly 82–86°F) following today’s observed peak around 26–27°C, driven by stable high pressure and minimal cloud cover. This alignment of model runs on the exact temperature threshold explains the market’s concentration of implied probability on 29°C (50.5%), with secondary weight on 28°C and 30°C. Traders are effectively pricing the most likely outcome from the current forecast ensemble, which shows no precipitation and only modest day-to-day warming typical of mid-September climatology in the region. Updated model guidance or observational shifts ahead of resolution could still adjust the final reading within a narrow range.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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