**Recent model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS places Shanghai’s expected high on September 14 near 29°C, aligning with the market’s leading 47.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Current conditions feature light northeast winds, moderate humidity, and partly cloudy skies under a stable subtropical high, supporting daytime warming to the upper 20s Celsius without strong advection of cooler air or heavy precipitation that would cap temperatures lower. Historical September averages for Shanghai highs hover around 27–28°C, so the forecast reflects a modestly above-normal but typical late-summer pattern. Ensemble spreads remain tight two days out, with most runs clustering between 28–30°C; this limits tail risks and explains why probabilities for 24°C or below and 33°C or higher sit near 2%. Minor model differences in cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture could nudge the exact peak by 1°C, but fresh runs through September 12 show no major shifts that would favor outliers. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow range around the central forecast while awaiting the final 24–48 hour updates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 14?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 14?
29°C 59%
28°C 27%
30°C 14%
26°C 8%
BARU
BARU
Sep 14, 2026
24°C or below
4%
25°C
5%
26°C
8%
27°C
7%
28°C
27%
29°C
59%
30°C
14%
31°C
6%
32°C
5%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
2%
29°C 59%
28°C 27%
30°C 14%
26°C 8%
BARU
BARU
Sep 14, 2026
24°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
25°C
$0 Vol.
5%
26°C
$0 Vol.
8%
27°C
$0 Vol.
7%
28°C
$0 Vol.
27%
29°C
$58 Vol.
59%
30°C
$10 Vol.
14%
31°C
$0 Vol.
6%
32°C
$0 Vol.
5%
33°C
$0 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS places Shanghai’s expected high on September 14 near 29°C, aligning with the market’s leading 47.5% implied probability for that outcome.**
Current conditions feature light northeast winds, moderate humidity, and partly cloudy skies under a stable subtropical high, supporting daytime warming to the upper 20s Celsius without strong advection of cooler air or heavy precipitation that would cap temperatures lower. Historical September averages for Shanghai highs hover around 27–28°C, so the forecast reflects a modestly above-normal but typical late-summer pattern.
Ensemble spreads remain tight two days out, with most runs clustering between 28–30°C; this limits tail risks and explains why probabilities for 24°C or below and 33°C or higher sit near 2%. Minor model differences in cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture could nudge the exact peak by 1°C, but fresh runs through September 12 show no major shifts that would favor outliers. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow range around the central forecast while awaiting the final 24–48 hour updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$67Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS places Shanghai’s expected high on September 14 near 29°C, aligning with the market’s leading 47.5% implied probability for that outcome.**
Current conditions feature light northeast winds, moderate humidity, and partly cloudy skies under a stable subtropical high, supporting daytime warming to the upper 20s Celsius without strong advection of cooler air or heavy precipitation that would cap temperatures lower. Historical September averages for Shanghai highs hover around 27–28°C, so the forecast reflects a modestly above-normal but typical late-summer pattern.
Ensemble spreads remain tight two days out, with most runs clustering between 28–30°C; this limits tail risks and explains why probabilities for 24°C or below and 33°C or higher sit near 2%. Minor model differences in cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture could nudge the exact peak by 1°C, but fresh runs through September 12 show no major shifts that would favor outliers. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow range around the central forecast while awaiting the final 24–48 hour updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$67Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS places Shanghai’s expected high on September 14 near 29°C, aligning with the market’s leading 47.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Current conditions feature light northeast winds, moderate humidity, and partly cloudy skies under a stable subtropical high, supporting daytime warming to the upper 20s Celsius without strong advection of cooler air or heavy precipitation that would cap temperatures lower. Historical September averages for Shanghai highs hover around 27–28°C, so the forecast reflects a modestly above-normal but typical late-summer pattern. Ensemble spreads remain tight two days out, with most runs clustering between 28–30°C; this limits tail risks and explains why probabilities for 24°C or below and 33°C or higher sit near 2%. Minor model differences in cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture could nudge the exact peak by 1°C, but fresh runs through September 12 show no major shifts that would favor outliers. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow range around the central forecast while awaiting the final 24–48 hour updates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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