Latest ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration converge on a daily maximum of 31°C in Chengdu on May 17, driving the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied probability for this exact outcome. A strengthening subtropical ridge over the Sichuan Basin has established clear skies and light northeasterly winds that enhance daytime solar heating, pushing temperatures above the late-May climatological average of 27–28°C. Lingering low-level moisture and minor spread among model runs account for the small residual chances attached to 32°C or higher. Traders are watching the final afternoon observation window for any late steering-flow adjustments that could nudge the peak, though current conditions and historical analogs make significant deviations unlikely.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Chengdu on May 17?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 17?
31°C 99.8%
32°C <1%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
$63,274 Vol.
$63,274 Vol.
May 17, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
100%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
31°C 99.8%
32°C <1%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
$63,274 Vol.
$63,274 Vol.
May 17, 2026
23°C or below
$1,343 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,724 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$3,055 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$4,973 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$5,948 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$6,223 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$6,310 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$9,226 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$10,351 Vol.
100%
32°C
$8,416 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$6,837 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration converge on a daily maximum of 31°C in Chengdu on May 17, driving the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied probability for this exact outcome. A strengthening subtropical ridge over the Sichuan Basin has established clear skies and light northeasterly winds that enhance daytime solar heating, pushing temperatures above the late-May climatological average of 27–28°C. Lingering low-level moisture and minor spread among model runs account for the small residual chances attached to 32°C or higher. Traders are watching the final afternoon observation window for any late steering-flow adjustments that could nudge the peak, though current conditions and historical analogs make significant deviations unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$63,274Tanggal Berakhir
May 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration converge on a daily maximum of 31°C in Chengdu on May 17, driving the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied probability for this exact outcome. A strengthening subtropical ridge over the Sichuan Basin has established clear skies and light northeasterly winds that enhance daytime solar heating, pushing temperatures above the late-May climatological average of 27–28°C. Lingering low-level moisture and minor spread among model runs account for the small residual chances attached to 32°C or higher. Traders are watching the final afternoon observation window for any late steering-flow adjustments that could nudge the peak, though current conditions and historical analogs make significant deviations unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$63,274Tanggal Berakhir
May 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUULatest ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration converge on a daily maximum of 31°C in Chengdu on May 17, driving the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied probability for this exact outcome. A strengthening subtropical ridge over the Sichuan Basin has established clear skies and light northeasterly winds that enhance daytime solar heating, pushing temperatures above the late-May climatological average of 27–28°C. Lingering low-level moisture and minor spread among model runs account for the small residual chances attached to 32°C or higher. Traders are watching the final afternoon observation window for any late steering-flow adjustments that could nudge the peak, though current conditions and historical analogs make significant deviations unlikely.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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