Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show Istanbul's August 13 maximum likely peaking at 27–28°C under stable anticyclonic conditions with light northerly flow and minimal cloud cover, driving the near-even split in market-implied odds. Subsidence warming and strong daytime insolation favor afternoon highs near the seasonal mean of 28°C, while the Bosphorus and Marmara Sea exert a moderating maritime influence that limits exceedances. Minor model spread arises from slight variations in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat island effects at official reporting sites, with no significant frontal passages or moisture advection expected to alter the outcome before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 13?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 13?
27°C 51%
28°C 41%
26°C 5%
29°C 5%
BARU
$11,408 Vol.
BARU
$11,408 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
5%
27°C
51%
28°C
41%
29°C
5%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 51%
28°C 41%
26°C 5%
29°C 5%
BARU
$11,408 Vol.
BARU
$11,408 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
23°C or below
$435 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$548 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$701 Vol.
1%
26°C
$938 Vol.
5%
27°C
$3,261 Vol.
51%
28°C
$1,970 Vol.
41%
29°C
$718 Vol.
5%
30°C
$939 Vol.
1%
31°C
$536 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$1,095 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$267 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show Istanbul's August 13 maximum likely peaking at 27–28°C under stable anticyclonic conditions with light northerly flow and minimal cloud cover, driving the near-even split in market-implied odds. Subsidence warming and strong daytime insolation favor afternoon highs near the seasonal mean of 28°C, while the Bosphorus and Marmara Sea exert a moderating maritime influence that limits exceedances. Minor model spread arises from slight variations in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat island effects at official reporting sites, with no significant frontal passages or moisture advection expected to alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$11,408Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 13, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show Istanbul's August 13 maximum likely peaking at 27–28°C under stable anticyclonic conditions with light northerly flow and minimal cloud cover, driving the near-even split in market-implied odds. Subsidence warming and strong daytime insolation favor afternoon highs near the seasonal mean of 28°C, while the Bosphorus and Marmara Sea exert a moderating maritime influence that limits exceedances. Minor model spread arises from slight variations in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat island effects at official reporting sites, with no significant frontal passages or moisture advection expected to alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,408Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 13, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show Istanbul's August 13 maximum likely peaking at 27–28°C under stable anticyclonic conditions with light northerly flow and minimal cloud cover, driving the near-even split in market-implied odds. Subsidence warming and strong daytime insolation favor afternoon highs near the seasonal mean of 28°C, while the Bosphorus and Marmara Sea exert a moderating maritime influence that limits exceedances. Minor model spread arises from slight variations in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat island effects at official reporting sites, with no significant frontal passages or moisture advection expected to alter the outcome before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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