Forecast models from sources like the Met Office and BBC indicate Mexico City’s June 15 high will likely fall in the 23–26 °C range, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 25 °C (29 %) and 26 °C (23.5 %). At 2,240 m elevation, daytime maxima are tempered by the highland setting and the onset of the wet season, when increased cloud cover, humidity, and scattered showers limit solar heating. Ensemble guidance shows modest variability tied to the exact timing and coverage of afternoon convection, which can shave 1–2 °C off the peak depending on whether skies clear earlier or remain overcast. Historical June averages near 25 °C provide a baseline, but current short-range runs favor slightly cooler readings than mid-month norms due to persistent moisture.