Recent ensemble forecasts from the German Weather Service (DWD) and ECMWF place Munich's June 13 maximum near 24–25°C, with trader consensus split between those bins reflecting model spread on cloud cover and shower timing. A weak Atlantic trough is expected to deliver morning drizzle or broken stratiform clouds that could suppress peak insolation and cap readings at 24°C, while clearer afternoon breaks under westerly flow would allow brief warming toward 25°C. Historical June climatology shows average highs of 21–23°C, so current guidance represents a modest positive anomaly driven by southerly advection. Updated model runs over the past 48 hours have narrowed the range but maintain roughly equal odds for the two leading outcomes, with higher thresholds remaining low-probability unless subsidence strengthens.