Recent forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a pronounced warm-air advection pattern over eastern Japan, positioning Tokyo for a daily maximum near or above 27°C on May 19. This late-spring setup aligns with seasonal warming trends, where typical mid-May highs at the Otemachi station average 23–25°C but rise steadily as subtropical air masses strengthen. Current ensemble guidance shows minimal disagreement on intensification potential, with limited cloud cover and light winds favoring peak readings in the upper 20s Celsius. Historical analogs from similar synoptic conditions confirm that 27°C thresholds are reached roughly 60–70% of the time in the final week of May, while cooler outcomes below 25°C remain unlikely absent an unexpected frontal passage. Traders are monitoring the next JMA model runs for any adjustments ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 19?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 19?
27°C or higher 76%
26°C 12%
25°C 9%
24°C 7%
BARU
BARU
May 19, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
7%
25°C
9%
26°C
12%
27°C or higher
76%
27°C or higher 76%
26°C 12%
25°C 9%
24°C 7%
BARU
BARU
May 19, 2026
17°C or below
$416 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$416 Vol.
1%
19°C
$679 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$431 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$356 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$239 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$476 Vol.
1%
24°C
$438 Vol.
7%
25°C
$136 Vol.
9%
26°C
$282 Vol.
12%
27°C or higher
$317 Vol.
76%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a pronounced warm-air advection pattern over eastern Japan, positioning Tokyo for a daily maximum near or above 27°C on May 19. This late-spring setup aligns with seasonal warming trends, where typical mid-May highs at the Otemachi station average 23–25°C but rise steadily as subtropical air masses strengthen. Current ensemble guidance shows minimal disagreement on intensification potential, with limited cloud cover and light winds favoring peak readings in the upper 20s Celsius. Historical analogs from similar synoptic conditions confirm that 27°C thresholds are reached roughly 60–70% of the time in the final week of May, while cooler outcomes below 25°C remain unlikely absent an unexpected frontal passage. Traders are monitoring the next JMA model runs for any adjustments ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$4,187Tanggal Berakhir
May 19, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a pronounced warm-air advection pattern over eastern Japan, positioning Tokyo for a daily maximum near or above 27°C on May 19. This late-spring setup aligns with seasonal warming trends, where typical mid-May highs at the Otemachi station average 23–25°C but rise steadily as subtropical air masses strengthen. Current ensemble guidance shows minimal disagreement on intensification potential, with limited cloud cover and light winds favoring peak readings in the upper 20s Celsius. Historical analogs from similar synoptic conditions confirm that 27°C thresholds are reached roughly 60–70% of the time in the final week of May, while cooler outcomes below 25°C remain unlikely absent an unexpected frontal passage. Traders are monitoring the next JMA model runs for any adjustments ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,187Tanggal Berakhir
May 19, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTRecent forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a pronounced warm-air advection pattern over eastern Japan, positioning Tokyo for a daily maximum near or above 27°C on May 19. This late-spring setup aligns with seasonal warming trends, where typical mid-May highs at the Otemachi station average 23–25°C but rise steadily as subtropical air masses strengthen. Current ensemble guidance shows minimal disagreement on intensification potential, with limited cloud cover and light winds favoring peak readings in the upper 20s Celsius. Historical analogs from similar synoptic conditions confirm that 27°C thresholds are reached roughly 60–70% of the time in the final week of May, while cooler outcomes below 25°C remain unlikely absent an unexpected frontal passage. Traders are monitoring the next JMA model runs for any adjustments ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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