Persistent rain and northeasterly winds from a frontal system are the main factors anchoring trader sentiment toward a 23–25°C range for Tokyo’s highest temperature on September 16. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate widespread precipitation and elevated cloud cover that will limit daytime heating, keeping maxima well below the late-September climatological average near 27°C. Recent northerly flow has already introduced cooler, more stable air masses, reducing the potential for brief clearing that could push readings to 26°C or higher. With the market heavily weighted toward 24°C at 38% implied probability, traders appear to be pricing in the consensus forecast while allowing modest upside for any late-day breaks in cloud cover. Updated model runs and the next Japan Meteorological Agency briefing remain key near-term catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 16?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 16?
24°C 38%
25°C 25%
23°C 20%
26°C 6%
BARU
$17,604 Vol.
BARU
$17,604 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
2%
22°C
5%
23°C
20%
24°C
38%
25°C
25%
26°C
6%
27°C
2%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
1%
24°C 38%
25°C 25%
23°C 20%
26°C 6%
BARU
$17,604 Vol.
BARU
$17,604 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
19°C or below
$212 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$485 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$487 Vol.
2%
22°C
$740 Vol.
5%
23°C
$2,308 Vol.
20%
24°C
$3,012 Vol.
38%
25°C
$4,580 Vol.
25%
26°C
$2,659 Vol.
6%
27°C
$659 Vol.
2%
28°C
$967 Vol.
1%
29°C or higher
$1,493 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and northeasterly winds from a frontal system are the main factors anchoring trader sentiment toward a 23–25°C range for Tokyo’s highest temperature on September 16. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate widespread precipitation and elevated cloud cover that will limit daytime heating, keeping maxima well below the late-September climatological average near 27°C. Recent northerly flow has already introduced cooler, more stable air masses, reducing the potential for brief clearing that could push readings to 26°C or higher. With the market heavily weighted toward 24°C at 38% implied probability, traders appear to be pricing in the consensus forecast while allowing modest upside for any late-day breaks in cloud cover. Updated model runs and the next Japan Meteorological Agency briefing remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$17,604Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and northeasterly winds from a frontal system are the main factors anchoring trader sentiment toward a 23–25°C range for Tokyo’s highest temperature on September 16. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate widespread precipitation and elevated cloud cover that will limit daytime heating, keeping maxima well below the late-September climatological average near 27°C. Recent northerly flow has already introduced cooler, more stable air masses, reducing the potential for brief clearing that could push readings to 26°C or higher. With the market heavily weighted toward 24°C at 38% implied probability, traders appear to be pricing in the consensus forecast while allowing modest upside for any late-day breaks in cloud cover. Updated model runs and the next Japan Meteorological Agency briefing remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$17,604Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent rain and northeasterly winds from a frontal system are the main factors anchoring trader sentiment toward a 23–25°C range for Tokyo’s highest temperature on September 16. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate widespread precipitation and elevated cloud cover that will limit daytime heating, keeping maxima well below the late-September climatological average near 27°C. Recent northerly flow has already introduced cooler, more stable air masses, reducing the potential for brief clearing that could push readings to 26°C or higher. With the market heavily weighted toward 24°C at 38% implied probability, traders appear to be pricing in the consensus forecast while allowing modest upside for any late-day breaks in cloud cover. Updated model runs and the next Japan Meteorological Agency briefing remain key near-term catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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