Trader consensus strongly favors exactly one earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or greater during May 11–17, driven by moderate global seismic activity tracked by the USGS and absence of major aftershock sequences or swarm events in high-risk subduction zones. Worldwide, such events occur at an average rate of roughly 15–20 per year, with recent monitoring showing no clusters exceeding historical baselines near the Pacific Ring of Fire or other tectonically active regions. This market-implied probability reflects real-time assessment of official catalog data and model consensus on fault slip rates, though it could realistically adjust if a borderline event receives a magnitude revision or an unexpected M6.5+ strike occurs before the period closes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
1 92%
2 10%
3 <1%
0 <1%
$57,390 Vol.
$57,390 Vol.
May 17, 2026
0
<1%
1
92%
2
10%
3
<1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
1 92%
2 10%
3 <1%
0 <1%
$57,390 Vol.
$57,390 Vol.
May 17, 2026
0
$33,692 Vol.
<1%
1
$5,875 Vol.
92%
2
$5,146 Vol.
10%
3
$6,017 Vol.
<1%
4
$3,557 Vol.
<1%
5
$1,570 Vol.
<1%
>5
$1,633 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus strongly favors exactly one earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or greater during May 11–17, driven by moderate global seismic activity tracked by the USGS and absence of major aftershock sequences or swarm events in high-risk subduction zones. Worldwide, such events occur at an average rate of roughly 15–20 per year, with recent monitoring showing no clusters exceeding historical baselines near the Pacific Ring of Fire or other tectonically active regions. This market-implied probability reflects real-time assessment of official catalog data and model consensus on fault slip rates, though it could realistically adjust if a borderline event receives a magnitude revision or an unexpected M6.5+ strike occurs before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Pasar Dibuka: May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ET
Volume
$57,390Tanggal Berakhir
May 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus strongly favors exactly one earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or greater during May 11–17, driven by moderate global seismic activity tracked by the USGS and absence of major aftershock sequences or swarm events in high-risk subduction zones. Worldwide, such events occur at an average rate of roughly 15–20 per year, with recent monitoring showing no clusters exceeding historical baselines near the Pacific Ring of Fire or other tectonically active regions. This market-implied probability reflects real-time assessment of official catalog data and model consensus on fault slip rates, though it could realistically adjust if a borderline event receives a magnitude revision or an unexpected M6.5+ strike occurs before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$57,390Tanggal Berakhir
May 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus strongly favors exactly one earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or greater during May 11–17, driven by moderate global seismic activity tracked by the USGS and absence of major aftershock sequences or swarm events in high-risk subduction zones. Worldwide, such events occur at an average rate of roughly 15–20 per year, with recent monitoring showing no clusters exceeding historical baselines near the Pacific Ring of Fire or other tectonically active regions. This market-implied probability reflects real-time assessment of official catalog data and model consensus on fault slip rates, though it could realistically adjust if a borderline event receives a magnitude revision or an unexpected M6.5+ strike occurs before the period closes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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