**Trader sentiment for the August 2026 U.S. tornado total clusters tightly around the long-term average of roughly 80–120 events, with 60–79 and 80–99 each at 33.5% implied probability.** Mid-month activity, including multiple EF-0/1 tornadoes spawned by an August 11–12 derecho across northern Illinois and Indiana, has already contributed several confirmations amid an unusually active 2026 season. Northern-tier states remain favored as the summertime jet stream lingers near the Canadian border, sustaining modest instability and shear. NOAA/SPC data show August totals historically range from 64 to 213, with recent years (2021–2025) averaging near 118. Model guidance for the final two weeks points to continued but not extreme patterns, leaving the outcome sensitive to any late-month frontal passages or residual moisture. Resolution hinges on final NWS surveys by early September.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
200+ 45.6%
60-79 34%
80-99 34%
100–119 22%
BARU
BARU
Sep 1, 2026
<40
2%
40–59
9%
60-79
34%
80-99
34%
100–119
22%
120–139
9%
140-169
7%
170–199
2%
200+
46%
200+ 45.6%
60-79 34%
80-99 34%
100–119 22%
BARU
BARU
Sep 1, 2026
<40
$258 Vol.
2%
40–59
$152 Vol.
9%
60-79
$236 Vol.
34%
80-99
$244 Vol.
34%
100–119
$167 Vol.
22%
120–139
$52 Vol.
9%
140-169
$209 Vol.
7%
170–199
$157 Vol.
2%
200+
$245 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader sentiment for the August 2026 U.S. tornado total clusters tightly around the long-term average of roughly 80–120 events, with 60–79 and 80–99 each at 33.5% implied probability.** Mid-month activity, including multiple EF-0/1 tornadoes spawned by an August 11–12 derecho across northern Illinois and Indiana, has already contributed several confirmations amid an unusually active 2026 season. Northern-tier states remain favored as the summertime jet stream lingers near the Canadian border, sustaining modest instability and shear. NOAA/SPC data show August totals historically range from 64 to 213, with recent years (2021–2025) averaging near 118. Model guidance for the final two weeks points to continued but not extreme patterns, leaving the outcome sensitive to any late-month frontal passages or residual moisture. Resolution hinges on final NWS surveys by early September.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$1,721Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader sentiment for the August 2026 U.S. tornado total clusters tightly around the long-term average of roughly 80–120 events, with 60–79 and 80–99 each at 33.5% implied probability.** Mid-month activity, including multiple EF-0/1 tornadoes spawned by an August 11–12 derecho across northern Illinois and Indiana, has already contributed several confirmations amid an unusually active 2026 season. Northern-tier states remain favored as the summertime jet stream lingers near the Canadian border, sustaining modest instability and shear. NOAA/SPC data show August totals historically range from 64 to 213, with recent years (2021–2025) averaging near 118. Model guidance for the final two weeks points to continued but not extreme patterns, leaving the outcome sensitive to any late-month frontal passages or residual moisture. Resolution hinges on final NWS surveys by early September.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$1,721Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for the August 2026 U.S. tornado total clusters tightly around the long-term average of roughly 80–120 events, with 60–79 and 80–99 each at 33.5% implied probability.** Mid-month activity, including multiple EF-0/1 tornadoes spawned by an August 11–12 derecho across northern Illinois and Indiana, has already contributed several confirmations amid an unusually active 2026 season. Northern-tier states remain favored as the summertime jet stream lingers near the Canadian border, sustaining modest instability and shear. NOAA/SPC data show August totals historically range from 64 to 213, with recent years (2021–2025) averaging near 118. Model guidance for the final two weeks points to continued but not extreme patterns, leaving the outcome sensitive to any late-month frontal passages or residual moisture. Resolution hinges on final NWS surveys by early September.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan