Recent severe weather outbreaks, including the May 6-7 event across the Southeast with multiple confirmed EF2 and EF3 tornadoes, have pushed early-month counts above the 1991–2020 average of roughly 265. Storm Prediction Center outlooks for the final two weeks highlight elevated tornado risk tied to a strong jet stream pattern and abundant moisture, though model consensus on exact numbers remains wide due to steering uncertainties and potential for discrete supercells versus linear systems. With trader-implied odds clustered tightly between the 200–229 and 260–289 bins, markets reflect genuine variability in how many additional events the remaining period may produce before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many Tornadoes in the US in May?
How many Tornadoes in the US in May?
<200 42%
260–289 39%
230–259 38%
200–229 37%
BARU
BARU
Jun 8, 2026
<200
34%
200–229
37%
230–259
38%
260–289
39%
290–319
13%
320–349
9%
350–379
10%
380–410
10%
410+
9%
<200 42%
260–289 39%
230–259 38%
200–229 37%
BARU
BARU
Jun 8, 2026
<200
$228 Vol.
34%
200–229
$0 Vol.
37%
230–259
$0 Vol.
38%
260–289
$0 Vol.
39%
290–319
$0 Vol.
13%
320–349
$10 Vol.
9%
350–379
$10 Vol.
10%
380–410
$0 Vol.
10%
410+
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent severe weather outbreaks, including the May 6-7 event across the Southeast with multiple confirmed EF2 and EF3 tornadoes, have pushed early-month counts above the 1991–2020 average of roughly 265. Storm Prediction Center outlooks for the final two weeks highlight elevated tornado risk tied to a strong jet stream pattern and abundant moisture, though model consensus on exact numbers remains wide due to steering uncertainties and potential for discrete supercells versus linear systems. With trader-implied odds clustered tightly between the 200–229 and 260–289 bins, markets reflect genuine variability in how many additional events the remaining period may produce before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ET
Volume
$248Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 8, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent severe weather outbreaks, including the May 6-7 event across the Southeast with multiple confirmed EF2 and EF3 tornadoes, have pushed early-month counts above the 1991–2020 average of roughly 265. Storm Prediction Center outlooks for the final two weeks highlight elevated tornado risk tied to a strong jet stream pattern and abundant moisture, though model consensus on exact numbers remains wide due to steering uncertainties and potential for discrete supercells versus linear systems. With trader-implied odds clustered tightly between the 200–229 and 260–289 bins, markets reflect genuine variability in how many additional events the remaining period may produce before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$248Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 8, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent severe weather outbreaks, including the May 6-7 event across the Southeast with multiple confirmed EF2 and EF3 tornadoes, have pushed early-month counts above the 1991–2020 average of roughly 265. Storm Prediction Center outlooks for the final two weeks highlight elevated tornado risk tied to a strong jet stream pattern and abundant moisture, though model consensus on exact numbers remains wide due to steering uncertainties and potential for discrete supercells versus linear systems. With trader-implied odds clustered tightly between the 200–229 and 260–289 bins, markets reflect genuine variability in how many additional events the remaining period may produce before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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