Current forecasts from numerical weather models place Amsterdam’s minimum temperature for September 12 at 12 °C, driving the market’s 99.4 % implied probability for that exact outcome. Persistent southwest flow, extensive cloud cover, and light rain or drizzle have limited nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping overnight readings near the long-term average low of roughly 11 °C while preventing sharper drops. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around 12 °C with minimal spread, reflecting stable atmospheric conditions and the absence of high-pressure clearing that historically produces colder readings. Only a late-model shift toward clearer skies or a wind veer to northerly flow could realistically push the minimum to 11 °C or below before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 12?
12°C 99.4%
8°C <1%
7°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
$1,065 Vol.
$1,065 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
99%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
12°C 99.4%
8°C <1%
7°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
$1,065 Vol.
$1,065 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
7°C or below
$15 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$66 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$253 Vol.
99%
13°C
$261 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$148 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$95 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$56 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$76 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from numerical weather models place Amsterdam’s minimum temperature for September 12 at 12 °C, driving the market’s 99.4 % implied probability for that exact outcome. Persistent southwest flow, extensive cloud cover, and light rain or drizzle have limited nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping overnight readings near the long-term average low of roughly 11 °C while preventing sharper drops. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around 12 °C with minimal spread, reflecting stable atmospheric conditions and the absence of high-pressure clearing that historically produces colder readings. Only a late-model shift toward clearer skies or a wind veer to northerly flow could realistically push the minimum to 11 °C or below before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$1,065Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 12, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from numerical weather models place Amsterdam’s minimum temperature for September 12 at 12 °C, driving the market’s 99.4 % implied probability for that exact outcome. Persistent southwest flow, extensive cloud cover, and light rain or drizzle have limited nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping overnight readings near the long-term average low of roughly 11 °C while preventing sharper drops. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around 12 °C with minimal spread, reflecting stable atmospheric conditions and the absence of high-pressure clearing that historically produces colder readings. Only a late-model shift toward clearer skies or a wind veer to northerly flow could realistically push the minimum to 11 °C or below before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,065Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 12, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from numerical weather models place Amsterdam’s minimum temperature for September 12 at 12 °C, driving the market’s 99.4 % implied probability for that exact outcome. Persistent southwest flow, extensive cloud cover, and light rain or drizzle have limited nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping overnight readings near the long-term average low of roughly 11 °C while preventing sharper drops. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around 12 °C with minimal spread, reflecting stable atmospheric conditions and the absence of high-pressure clearing that historically produces colder readings. Only a late-model shift toward clearer skies or a wind veer to northerly flow could realistically push the minimum to 11 °C or below before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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