Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a minimum temperature of 15–16°C in Ankara on August 22 because numerical weather models show modest overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds, with forecast lows clustered near 18°C but carrying uncertainty from boundary-layer humidity and urban heat retention. Differentiating factors among the tightly grouped outcomes (15–17°C) include small variations in dew-point depression, which controls how efficiently the surface loses heat after sunset, and minor differences in predicted wind speeds that could mix warmer air downward. Higher-probability bins above 18°C would require stronger advection or increased cloud cover, while sub-14°C readings remain less favored absent an unexpected cold-air outbreak. Official guidance from regional models and historical August climatology (typical daily minima near 17–19°C) anchors the current market consensus, with any final-hour forecast adjustments likely to shift the tight 15–17°C cluster.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Ankara on August 22?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on August 22?
16°C 37%
15°C 36%
17°C 27%
12°C or below 24%
BARU
BARU
Aug 22, 2026
12°C or below
24%
13°C
21%
14°C
8%
15°C
36%
16°C
37%
17°C
27%
18°C
7%
19°C
14%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C or higher
4%
16°C 37%
15°C 36%
17°C 27%
12°C or below 24%
BARU
BARU
Aug 22, 2026
12°C or below
$5 Vol.
24%
13°C
$0 Vol.
21%
14°C
$15 Vol.
8%
15°C
$1 Vol.
36%
16°C
$16 Vol.
37%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$0 Vol.
7%
19°C
$5 Vol.
14%
20°C
$6 Vol.
2%
21°C
$5 Vol.
2%
22°C or higher
$5 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a minimum temperature of 15–16°C in Ankara on August 22 because numerical weather models show modest overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds, with forecast lows clustered near 18°C but carrying uncertainty from boundary-layer humidity and urban heat retention. Differentiating factors among the tightly grouped outcomes (15–17°C) include small variations in dew-point depression, which controls how efficiently the surface loses heat after sunset, and minor differences in predicted wind speeds that could mix warmer air downward. Higher-probability bins above 18°C would require stronger advection or increased cloud cover, while sub-14°C readings remain less favored absent an unexpected cold-air outbreak. Official guidance from regional models and historical August climatology (typical daily minima near 17–19°C) anchors the current market consensus, with any final-hour forecast adjustments likely to shift the tight 15–17°C cluster.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 20, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
Volume
$59Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 22, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 20, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a minimum temperature of 15–16°C in Ankara on August 22 because numerical weather models show modest overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds, with forecast lows clustered near 18°C but carrying uncertainty from boundary-layer humidity and urban heat retention. Differentiating factors among the tightly grouped outcomes (15–17°C) include small variations in dew-point depression, which controls how efficiently the surface loses heat after sunset, and minor differences in predicted wind speeds that could mix warmer air downward. Higher-probability bins above 18°C would require stronger advection or increased cloud cover, while sub-14°C readings remain less favored absent an unexpected cold-air outbreak. Official guidance from regional models and historical August climatology (typical daily minima near 17–19°C) anchors the current market consensus, with any final-hour forecast adjustments likely to shift the tight 15–17°C cluster.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$59Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 22, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 20, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a minimum temperature of 15–16°C in Ankara on August 22 because numerical weather models show modest overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds, with forecast lows clustered near 18°C but carrying uncertainty from boundary-layer humidity and urban heat retention. Differentiating factors among the tightly grouped outcomes (15–17°C) include small variations in dew-point depression, which controls how efficiently the surface loses heat after sunset, and minor differences in predicted wind speeds that could mix warmer air downward. Higher-probability bins above 18°C would require stronger advection or increased cloud cover, while sub-14°C readings remain less favored absent an unexpected cold-air outbreak. Official guidance from regional models and historical August climatology (typical daily minima near 17–19°C) anchors the current market consensus, with any final-hour forecast adjustments likely to shift the tight 15–17°C cluster.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan