**The dominant 66-67°F outcome (95.5% market-implied probability) aligns directly with the official National Weather Service observation at Chicago O’Hare: a minimum of 67°F recorded at 7:56 a.m. on September 15, 2026.** This value sat well above the 1991–2020 normal low of 58–59°F and reflected the influence of above-average warmth, elevated dew points, and persistent cloud cover or light winds that limited overnight radiative cooling. Official summaries showed a daily maximum of 85°F (9°F above normal) and only light precipitation, consistent with a stable, humid air mass that prevented the sharper temperature drops seen in clearer, drier historical analogs. Traders priced the narrow 66-67°F bin so heavily because pre-event model consensus and real-time observations pointed to a minimum that would settle precisely in this range rather than the cooler 64-65°F or lower bins. Lower-probability outcomes (e.g., 59°F or below at 5%) would have required an unexpected cold-air intrusion or clear-sky radiative cooling that did not materialize. The market resolution is now anchored to this verified station reading, with any future adjustments limited to minor quality-control revisions unlikely to shift the result outside the leading bin.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Chicago on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on September 15?
66-67°F 100.0%
59°F or below <1%
60-61°F <1%
62-63°F <1%
$1,395 Vol.
$1,395 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
59°F or below
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
Yes
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78°F or higher
No
66-67°F 100.0%
59°F or below <1%
60-61°F <1%
62-63°F <1%
$1,395 Vol.
$1,395 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
59°F or below
$16 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$16 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$102 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$111 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$107 Vol.
Yes
68-69°F
$551 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$376 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$106 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
No
78°F or higher
$10 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The dominant 66-67°F outcome (95.5% market-implied probability) aligns directly with the official National Weather Service observation at Chicago O’Hare: a minimum of 67°F recorded at 7:56 a.m. on September 15, 2026.**
This value sat well above the 1991–2020 normal low of 58–59°F and reflected the influence of above-average warmth, elevated dew points, and persistent cloud cover or light winds that limited overnight radiative cooling. Official summaries showed a daily maximum of 85°F (9°F above normal) and only light precipitation, consistent with a stable, humid air mass that prevented the sharper temperature drops seen in clearer, drier historical analogs.
Traders priced the narrow 66-67°F bin so heavily because pre-event model consensus and real-time observations pointed to a minimum that would settle precisely in this range rather than the cooler 64-65°F or lower bins. Lower-probability outcomes (e.g., 59°F or below at 5%) would have required an unexpected cold-air intrusion or clear-sky radiative cooling that did not materialize.
The market resolution is now anchored to this verified station reading, with any future adjustments limited to minor quality-control revisions unlikely to shift the result outside the leading bin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
Volume
$1,395Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The dominant 66-67°F outcome (95.5% market-implied probability) aligns directly with the official National Weather Service observation at Chicago O’Hare: a minimum of 67°F recorded at 7:56 a.m. on September 15, 2026.**
This value sat well above the 1991–2020 normal low of 58–59°F and reflected the influence of above-average warmth, elevated dew points, and persistent cloud cover or light winds that limited overnight radiative cooling. Official summaries showed a daily maximum of 85°F (9°F above normal) and only light precipitation, consistent with a stable, humid air mass that prevented the sharper temperature drops seen in clearer, drier historical analogs.
Traders priced the narrow 66-67°F bin so heavily because pre-event model consensus and real-time observations pointed to a minimum that would settle precisely in this range rather than the cooler 64-65°F or lower bins. Lower-probability outcomes (e.g., 59°F or below at 5%) would have required an unexpected cold-air intrusion or clear-sky radiative cooling that did not materialize.
The market resolution is now anchored to this verified station reading, with any future adjustments limited to minor quality-control revisions unlikely to shift the result outside the leading bin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,395Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
**The dominant 66-67°F outcome (95.5% market-implied probability) aligns directly with the official National Weather Service observation at Chicago O’Hare: a minimum of 67°F recorded at 7:56 a.m. on September 15, 2026.** This value sat well above the 1991–2020 normal low of 58–59°F and reflected the influence of above-average warmth, elevated dew points, and persistent cloud cover or light winds that limited overnight radiative cooling. Official summaries showed a daily maximum of 85°F (9°F above normal) and only light precipitation, consistent with a stable, humid air mass that prevented the sharper temperature drops seen in clearer, drier historical analogs. Traders priced the narrow 66-67°F bin so heavily because pre-event model consensus and real-time observations pointed to a minimum that would settle precisely in this range rather than the cooler 64-65°F or lower bins. Lower-probability outcomes (e.g., 59°F or below at 5%) would have required an unexpected cold-air intrusion or clear-sky radiative cooling that did not materialize. The market resolution is now anchored to this verified station reading, with any future adjustments limited to minor quality-control revisions unlikely to shift the result outside the leading bin.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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