The closely matched market-implied probabilities for a 25–27°C high in Chengdu on September 18 reflect short-term forecast uncertainty amid the onset of Hua Xi autumn rain patterns across the Sichuan Basin. Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 80%, and scattered showers limit daytime solar heating while the basin's topography traps moisture and promotes night rain, keeping maxima near or slightly below the September climatological average of 25–26°C. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble model runs show minor variations in precipitation timing and coverage that could shift the peak by 1–2°C, with lighter rain favoring the upper end of the range. Updated model outputs and local observations over the next 24 hours will likely narrow trader consensus before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 18?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 18?
26°C 27%
25°C 24%
27°C 21%
24°C 14%
BARU
BARU
Sep 18, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
3%
23°C
4%
24°C
14%
25°C
24%
26°C
27%
27°C
21%
28°C
8%
29°C
3%
30°C or higher
1%
26°C 27%
25°C 24%
27°C 21%
24°C 14%
BARU
BARU
Sep 18, 2026
20°C or below
$539 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$120 Vol.
1%
22°C
$196 Vol.
3%
23°C
$64 Vol.
4%
24°C
$369 Vol.
14%
25°C
$388 Vol.
24%
26°C
$171 Vol.
27%
27°C
$360 Vol.
21%
28°C
$172 Vol.
8%
29°C
$48 Vol.
3%
30°C or higher
$51 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market-implied probabilities for a 25–27°C high in Chengdu on September 18 reflect short-term forecast uncertainty amid the onset of Hua Xi autumn rain patterns across the Sichuan Basin. Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 80%, and scattered showers limit daytime solar heating while the basin's topography traps moisture and promotes night rain, keeping maxima near or slightly below the September climatological average of 25–26°C. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble model runs show minor variations in precipitation timing and coverage that could shift the peak by 1–2°C, with lighter rain favoring the upper end of the range. Updated model outputs and local observations over the next 24 hours will likely narrow trader consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$2,478Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market-implied probabilities for a 25–27°C high in Chengdu on September 18 reflect short-term forecast uncertainty amid the onset of Hua Xi autumn rain patterns across the Sichuan Basin. Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 80%, and scattered showers limit daytime solar heating while the basin's topography traps moisture and promotes night rain, keeping maxima near or slightly below the September climatological average of 25–26°C. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble model runs show minor variations in precipitation timing and coverage that could shift the peak by 1–2°C, with lighter rain favoring the upper end of the range. Updated model outputs and local observations over the next 24 hours will likely narrow trader consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,478Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied probabilities for a 25–27°C high in Chengdu on September 18 reflect short-term forecast uncertainty amid the onset of Hua Xi autumn rain patterns across the Sichuan Basin. Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 80%, and scattered showers limit daytime solar heating while the basin's topography traps moisture and promotes night rain, keeping maxima near or slightly below the September climatological average of 25–26°C. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble model runs show minor variations in precipitation timing and coverage that could shift the peak by 1–2°C, with lighter rain favoring the upper end of the range. Updated model outputs and local observations over the next 24 hours will likely narrow trader consensus before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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