Recent forecast model consensus from European and global ensembles points to a maximum temperature of 21°C in Amsterdam on September 19, supporting the leading market-implied probability near 57%. Mid-September climatology for the region features moderating Atlantic flow and variable high-pressure influence, with current surface analyses and upper-air patterns favoring mild conditions around 20–22°C rather than sharp excursions. Key variables include the precise timing of any frontal passage and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift daily highs by 1–2°C. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of 20°C and 21°C outcomes against historical September variability, where extremes beyond 23°C or below 19°C remain uncommon without strong blocking or advection. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 19?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 19?
21°C 56%
20°C 32%
22°C 9%
19°C 6%
BARU
BARU
Sep 19, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
2%
18°C
2%
19°C
6%
20°C
32%
21°C
56%
22°C
9%
23°C
3%
24°C
2%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
21°C 56%
20°C 32%
22°C 9%
19°C 6%
BARU
BARU
Sep 19, 2026
16°C or below
$50 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
2%
18°C
$0 Vol.
2%
19°C
$63 Vol.
6%
20°C
$247 Vol.
32%
21°C
$546 Vol.
56%
22°C
$34 Vol.
9%
23°C
$44 Vol.
3%
24°C
$0 Vol.
2%
25°C
$28 Vol.
<1%
26°C or higher
$234 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from European and global ensembles points to a maximum temperature of 21°C in Amsterdam on September 19, supporting the leading market-implied probability near 57%. Mid-September climatology for the region features moderating Atlantic flow and variable high-pressure influence, with current surface analyses and upper-air patterns favoring mild conditions around 20–22°C rather than sharp excursions. Key variables include the precise timing of any frontal passage and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift daily highs by 1–2°C. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of 20°C and 21°C outcomes against historical September variability, where extremes beyond 23°C or below 19°C remain uncommon without strong blocking or advection. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$1,245Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 19, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from European and global ensembles points to a maximum temperature of 21°C in Amsterdam on September 19, supporting the leading market-implied probability near 57%. Mid-September climatology for the region features moderating Atlantic flow and variable high-pressure influence, with current surface analyses and upper-air patterns favoring mild conditions around 20–22°C rather than sharp excursions. Key variables include the precise timing of any frontal passage and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift daily highs by 1–2°C. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of 20°C and 21°C outcomes against historical September variability, where extremes beyond 23°C or below 19°C remain uncommon without strong blocking or advection. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,245Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 19, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from European and global ensembles points to a maximum temperature of 21°C in Amsterdam on September 19, supporting the leading market-implied probability near 57%. Mid-September climatology for the region features moderating Atlantic flow and variable high-pressure influence, with current surface analyses and upper-air patterns favoring mild conditions around 20–22°C rather than sharp excursions. Key variables include the precise timing of any frontal passage and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift daily highs by 1–2°C. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of 20°C and 21°C outcomes against historical September variability, where extremes beyond 23°C or below 19°C remain uncommon without strong blocking or advection. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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