Recent forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate scattered thunderstorms and variable cloud cover over Manila on September 19, driven by the Intertropical Convergence Zone and a nearby low-pressure area, which typically caps daytime highs near the 30–32°C historical September average. Ongoing moderate El Niño conditions favor slightly warmer baselines, yet frequent convection and high humidity suppress peak temperatures by limiting solar heating. Model runs show minor spreads in timing and intensity of afternoon storms, creating tight differentiation: clearer breaks could allow 33–34°C readings while persistent rain keeps maxima at 30–31°C. This uncertainty, combined with short-range forecast updates expected in the next 48 hours, explains the closely matched market-implied odds around 31–33°C.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Manila on September 19?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 19?
32°C 26%
31°C 22%
33°C 21%
34°C 20%
BARU
BARU
Sep 19, 2026
28°C or below
1%
29°C
5%
30°C
8%
31°C
22%
32°C
26%
33°C
21%
34°C
20%
35°C
18%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
32°C 26%
31°C 22%
33°C 21%
34°C 20%
BARU
BARU
Sep 19, 2026
28°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
29°C
$0 Vol.
5%
30°C
$19 Vol.
8%
31°C
$0 Vol.
22%
32°C
$0 Vol.
26%
33°C
$0 Vol.
21%
34°C
$0 Vol.
20%
35°C
$0 Vol.
18%
36°C
$0 Vol.
1%
37°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$181 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate scattered thunderstorms and variable cloud cover over Manila on September 19, driven by the Intertropical Convergence Zone and a nearby low-pressure area, which typically caps daytime highs near the 30–32°C historical September average. Ongoing moderate El Niño conditions favor slightly warmer baselines, yet frequent convection and high humidity suppress peak temperatures by limiting solar heating. Model runs show minor spreads in timing and intensity of afternoon storms, creating tight differentiation: clearer breaks could allow 33–34°C readings while persistent rain keeps maxima at 30–31°C. This uncertainty, combined with short-range forecast updates expected in the next 48 hours, explains the closely matched market-implied odds around 31–33°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$311Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 19, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate scattered thunderstorms and variable cloud cover over Manila on September 19, driven by the Intertropical Convergence Zone and a nearby low-pressure area, which typically caps daytime highs near the 30–32°C historical September average. Ongoing moderate El Niño conditions favor slightly warmer baselines, yet frequent convection and high humidity suppress peak temperatures by limiting solar heating. Model runs show minor spreads in timing and intensity of afternoon storms, creating tight differentiation: clearer breaks could allow 33–34°C readings while persistent rain keeps maxima at 30–31°C. This uncertainty, combined with short-range forecast updates expected in the next 48 hours, explains the closely matched market-implied odds around 31–33°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$311Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 19, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate scattered thunderstorms and variable cloud cover over Manila on September 19, driven by the Intertropical Convergence Zone and a nearby low-pressure area, which typically caps daytime highs near the 30–32°C historical September average. Ongoing moderate El Niño conditions favor slightly warmer baselines, yet frequent convection and high humidity suppress peak temperatures by limiting solar heating. Model runs show minor spreads in timing and intensity of afternoon storms, creating tight differentiation: clearer breaks could allow 33–34°C readings while persistent rain keeps maxima at 30–31°C. This uncertainty, combined with short-range forecast updates expected in the next 48 hours, explains the closely matched market-implied odds around 31–33°C.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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