Short-term forecast uncertainty around local atmospheric stability and nocturnal radiative cooling drives the tight clustering of trader odds between 18–24°C for Istanbul’s August 22 minimum. Ensemble models show modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds over the Bosphorus and Sea of Marmara, where even small changes in cloud cover or katabatic flow can shift the overnight low by 1–2°C. Persistent high pressure supports typical late-summer values near 21–22°C, yet any increase in low-level humidity or urban heat retention could prevent the drop to 18°C or below that currently leads at 41.5 % implied probability. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs tonight will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Istanbul on August 22?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on August 22?
18°C or below 41.5%
23°C 36%
22°C 34%
24°C 34%
BARU
BARU
Aug 22, 2026
18°C or below
42%
19°C
26%
20°C
33%
21°C
33%
22°C
34%
23°C
36%
24°C
34%
25°C
3%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
1%
18°C or below 41.5%
23°C 36%
22°C 34%
24°C 34%
BARU
BARU
Aug 22, 2026
18°C or below
$81 Vol.
42%
19°C
$58 Vol.
26%
20°C
$10 Vol.
33%
21°C
$10 Vol.
33%
22°C
$10 Vol.
34%
23°C
$57 Vol.
36%
24°C
$10 Vol.
34%
25°C
$107 Vol.
3%
26°C
$158 Vol.
1%
27°C
$20 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$146 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty around local atmospheric stability and nocturnal radiative cooling drives the tight clustering of trader odds between 18–24°C for Istanbul’s August 22 minimum. Ensemble models show modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds over the Bosphorus and Sea of Marmara, where even small changes in cloud cover or katabatic flow can shift the overnight low by 1–2°C. Persistent high pressure supports typical late-summer values near 21–22°C, yet any increase in low-level humidity or urban heat retention could prevent the drop to 18°C or below that currently leads at 41.5 % implied probability. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs tonight will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 20, 2026, 1:33 PM ET
Volume
$668Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 22, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 20, 2026, 1:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty around local atmospheric stability and nocturnal radiative cooling drives the tight clustering of trader odds between 18–24°C for Istanbul’s August 22 minimum. Ensemble models show modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds over the Bosphorus and Sea of Marmara, where even small changes in cloud cover or katabatic flow can shift the overnight low by 1–2°C. Persistent high pressure supports typical late-summer values near 21–22°C, yet any increase in low-level humidity or urban heat retention could prevent the drop to 18°C or below that currently leads at 41.5 % implied probability. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs tonight will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$668Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 22, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 20, 2026, 1:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-term forecast uncertainty around local atmospheric stability and nocturnal radiative cooling drives the tight clustering of trader odds between 18–24°C for Istanbul’s August 22 minimum. Ensemble models show modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds over the Bosphorus and Sea of Marmara, where even small changes in cloud cover or katabatic flow can shift the overnight low by 1–2°C. Persistent high pressure supports typical late-summer values near 21–22°C, yet any increase in low-level humidity or urban heat retention could prevent the drop to 18°C or below that currently leads at 41.5 % implied probability. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs tonight will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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