**Forecast models and official guidance position the overnight minimum for August 31 around 13–15 °C, driving the heavy weighting toward 15 °C (54.5 %) and 16 °C (39.5 %).** The Met Office explicitly forecasts a 13 °C nighttime minimum for Monday, August 31, under a westerly flow with scattered showers easing overnight and increasing cloud that limits radiative cooling. Other sources, including GFS-derived guidance and Yr.no hourly output, show early-morning readings stabilizing near 14–15 °C after a mild 16–17 °C start to the night. This range aligns with the recent warmer-than-average August pattern (monthly anomalies +2–3 °C) and the climatological average low of ~13 °C, while the modest 14 °C probability (6.5 %) reflects downside risk if clearer skies or lighter winds develop. Market-implied odds therefore embed the consensus view that the official or station-reported low (commonly Heathrow or a central London site) will most likely finish at or just above 15 °C, with limited scope for sub-14 °C readings given current steering patterns and moisture. Updated model runs and the final Met Office briefing ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in London on August 31?
Lowest temperature in London on August 31?
15°C 55%
16°C 39%
14°C 7%
17°C 4%
BARU
BARU
Aug 31, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
7%
15°C
55%
16°C
39%
17°C
4%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
15°C 55%
16°C 39%
14°C 7%
17°C 4%
BARU
BARU
Aug 31, 2026
10°C or below
$140 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$267 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$143 Vol.
1%
13°C
$148 Vol.
1%
14°C
$217 Vol.
7%
15°C
$852 Vol.
55%
16°C
$643 Vol.
39%
17°C
$92 Vol.
4%
18°C
$110 Vol.
1%
19°C
$50 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$59 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance position the overnight minimum for August 31 around 13–15 °C, driving the heavy weighting toward 15 °C (54.5 %) and 16 °C (39.5 %).**
The Met Office explicitly forecasts a 13 °C nighttime minimum for Monday, August 31, under a westerly flow with scattered showers easing overnight and increasing cloud that limits radiative cooling. Other sources, including GFS-derived guidance and Yr.no hourly output, show early-morning readings stabilizing near 14–15 °C after a mild 16–17 °C start to the night. This range aligns with the recent warmer-than-average August pattern (monthly anomalies +2–3 °C) and the climatological average low of ~13 °C, while the modest 14 °C probability (6.5 %) reflects downside risk if clearer skies or lighter winds develop.
Market-implied odds therefore embed the consensus view that the official or station-reported low (commonly Heathrow or a central London site) will most likely finish at or just above 15 °C, with limited scope for sub-14 °C readings given current steering patterns and moisture. Updated model runs and the final Met Office briefing ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,721Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance position the overnight minimum for August 31 around 13–15 °C, driving the heavy weighting toward 15 °C (54.5 %) and 16 °C (39.5 %).**
The Met Office explicitly forecasts a 13 °C nighttime minimum for Monday, August 31, under a westerly flow with scattered showers easing overnight and increasing cloud that limits radiative cooling. Other sources, including GFS-derived guidance and Yr.no hourly output, show early-morning readings stabilizing near 14–15 °C after a mild 16–17 °C start to the night. This range aligns with the recent warmer-than-average August pattern (monthly anomalies +2–3 °C) and the climatological average low of ~13 °C, while the modest 14 °C probability (6.5 %) reflects downside risk if clearer skies or lighter winds develop.
Market-implied odds therefore embed the consensus view that the official or station-reported low (commonly Heathrow or a central London site) will most likely finish at or just above 15 °C, with limited scope for sub-14 °C readings given current steering patterns and moisture. Updated model runs and the final Met Office briefing ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,721Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and official guidance position the overnight minimum for August 31 around 13–15 °C, driving the heavy weighting toward 15 °C (54.5 %) and 16 °C (39.5 %).** The Met Office explicitly forecasts a 13 °C nighttime minimum for Monday, August 31, under a westerly flow with scattered showers easing overnight and increasing cloud that limits radiative cooling. Other sources, including GFS-derived guidance and Yr.no hourly output, show early-morning readings stabilizing near 14–15 °C after a mild 16–17 °C start to the night. This range aligns with the recent warmer-than-average August pattern (monthly anomalies +2–3 °C) and the climatological average low of ~13 °C, while the modest 14 °C probability (6.5 %) reflects downside risk if clearer skies or lighter winds develop. Market-implied odds therefore embed the consensus view that the official or station-reported low (commonly Heathrow or a central London site) will most likely finish at or just above 15 °C, with limited scope for sub-14 °C readings given current steering patterns and moisture. Updated model runs and the final Met Office briefing ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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