**Recent short-range forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate a daily minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 1, 2026, most likely between 23°C and 24°C, with some guidance around 25°C.** These align closely with the leading market-implied probabilities (24°C at 38%, 23°C at 27%, 25°C at 18.5%), reflecting trader aggregation of model outputs under skin-in-the-game incentives. Key drivers include the ongoing influence of a strong subtropical high-pressure system typical for early September in the region, which maintains warm, humid conditions with light southerly or easterly flow and limited cloud cover or precipitation overnight. Historical climatology for Tokyo shows early-September minima averaging near 23–24°C, and current model consensus (including guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency) supports little deviation from this baseline given stable atmospheric patterns observed through late August. Forecasts consistently project overnight lows around 23–24°C (roughly 73–76°F), with minimal cooling potential due to high dew points near 22–24°C and light winds. A slightly higher reading near 25°C could occur if daytime heat lingers longer into the evening under clearer skies, while any earlier frontal passage or increased cloudiness might nudge the minimum toward 23°C. With resolution imminent, the narrow distribution of probabilities underscores high model agreement and limited uncertainty in the final 48-hour window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 1?
24°C 38%
23°C 27%
25°C 19%
26°C 5%
BARU
BARU
Sep 1, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
2%
21°C
5%
22°C
9%
23°C
27%
24°C
38%
25°C
19%
26°C
5%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 38%
23°C 27%
25°C 19%
26°C 5%
BARU
BARU
Sep 1, 2026
19°C or below
$93 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$51 Vol.
2%
21°C
$226 Vol.
5%
22°C
$145 Vol.
9%
23°C
$280 Vol.
27%
24°C
$203 Vol.
38%
25°C
$253 Vol.
19%
26°C
$100 Vol.
5%
27°C
$83 Vol.
1%
28°C
$118 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$118 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent short-range forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate a daily minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 1, 2026, most likely between 23°C and 24°C, with some guidance around 25°C.** These align closely with the leading market-implied probabilities (24°C at 38%, 23°C at 27%, 25°C at 18.5%), reflecting trader aggregation of model outputs under skin-in-the-game incentives.
Key drivers include the ongoing influence of a strong subtropical high-pressure system typical for early September in the region, which maintains warm, humid conditions with light southerly or easterly flow and limited cloud cover or precipitation overnight. Historical climatology for Tokyo shows early-September minima averaging near 23–24°C, and current model consensus (including guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency) supports little deviation from this baseline given stable atmospheric patterns observed through late August.
Forecasts consistently project overnight lows around 23–24°C (roughly 73–76°F), with minimal cooling potential due to high dew points near 22–24°C and light winds. A slightly higher reading near 25°C could occur if daytime heat lingers longer into the evening under clearer skies, while any earlier frontal passage or increased cloudiness might nudge the minimum toward 23°C. With resolution imminent, the narrow distribution of probabilities underscores high model agreement and limited uncertainty in the final 48-hour window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,671Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent short-range forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate a daily minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 1, 2026, most likely between 23°C and 24°C, with some guidance around 25°C.** These align closely with the leading market-implied probabilities (24°C at 38%, 23°C at 27%, 25°C at 18.5%), reflecting trader aggregation of model outputs under skin-in-the-game incentives.
Key drivers include the ongoing influence of a strong subtropical high-pressure system typical for early September in the region, which maintains warm, humid conditions with light southerly or easterly flow and limited cloud cover or precipitation overnight. Historical climatology for Tokyo shows early-September minima averaging near 23–24°C, and current model consensus (including guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency) supports little deviation from this baseline given stable atmospheric patterns observed through late August.
Forecasts consistently project overnight lows around 23–24°C (roughly 73–76°F), with minimal cooling potential due to high dew points near 22–24°C and light winds. A slightly higher reading near 25°C could occur if daytime heat lingers longer into the evening under clearer skies, while any earlier frontal passage or increased cloudiness might nudge the minimum toward 23°C. With resolution imminent, the narrow distribution of probabilities underscores high model agreement and limited uncertainty in the final 48-hour window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,671Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent short-range forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate a daily minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 1, 2026, most likely between 23°C and 24°C, with some guidance around 25°C.** These align closely with the leading market-implied probabilities (24°C at 38%, 23°C at 27%, 25°C at 18.5%), reflecting trader aggregation of model outputs under skin-in-the-game incentives. Key drivers include the ongoing influence of a strong subtropical high-pressure system typical for early September in the region, which maintains warm, humid conditions with light southerly or easterly flow and limited cloud cover or precipitation overnight. Historical climatology for Tokyo shows early-September minima averaging near 23–24°C, and current model consensus (including guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency) supports little deviation from this baseline given stable atmospheric patterns observed through late August. Forecasts consistently project overnight lows around 23–24°C (roughly 73–76°F), with minimal cooling potential due to high dew points near 22–24°C and light winds. A slightly higher reading near 25°C could occur if daytime heat lingers longer into the evening under clearer skies, while any earlier frontal passage or increased cloudiness might nudge the minimum toward 23°C. With resolution imminent, the narrow distribution of probabilities underscores high model agreement and limited uncertainty in the final 48-hour window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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