Recent MetService and ensemble forecasts point to overnight lows of 9–11°C in Wellington on September 15 under a northerly flow and partly cloudy skies, with limited radiative cooling due to wind mixing. NIWA’s spring outlook notes near-average or slightly above-average temperatures amid El Niño-driven westerlies that enhance variability and occasional cold outbreaks. These conditions create tight differentiation among single-degree outcomes, as small shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or model bias can move the daily minimum by 1–2°C. Trader consensus clusters on 9°C and 10°C at roughly 30% each, reflecting high uncertainty in the precise minimum while discounting extremes below 7°C or above 14°C given the current guidance. Updated model runs and official observations will refine resolution criteria ahead of market close.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Wellington on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 15?
15°C or higher 50%
12°C 39%
13°C 39%
9°C 31%
BARU
BARU
Sep 15, 2026
5°C or below
2%
6°C
2%
7°C
21%
8°C
22%
9°C
31%
10°C
30%
11°C
22%
12°C
39%
13°C
39%
14°C
13%
15°C or higher
50%
15°C or higher 50%
12°C 39%
13°C 39%
9°C 31%
BARU
BARU
Sep 15, 2026
5°C or below
$10 Vol.
2%
6°C
$10 Vol.
2%
7°C
$8 Vol.
21%
8°C
$0 Vol.
22%
9°C
$0 Vol.
31%
10°C
$0 Vol.
30%
11°C
$0 Vol.
22%
12°C
$10 Vol.
39%
13°C
$10 Vol.
39%
14°C
$10 Vol.
13%
15°C or higher
$10 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService and ensemble forecasts point to overnight lows of 9–11°C in Wellington on September 15 under a northerly flow and partly cloudy skies, with limited radiative cooling due to wind mixing. NIWA’s spring outlook notes near-average or slightly above-average temperatures amid El Niño-driven westerlies that enhance variability and occasional cold outbreaks. These conditions create tight differentiation among single-degree outcomes, as small shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or model bias can move the daily minimum by 1–2°C. Trader consensus clusters on 9°C and 10°C at roughly 30% each, reflecting high uncertainty in the precise minimum while discounting extremes below 7°C or above 14°C given the current guidance. Updated model runs and official observations will refine resolution criteria ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Volume
$68Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService and ensemble forecasts point to overnight lows of 9–11°C in Wellington on September 15 under a northerly flow and partly cloudy skies, with limited radiative cooling due to wind mixing. NIWA’s spring outlook notes near-average or slightly above-average temperatures amid El Niño-driven westerlies that enhance variability and occasional cold outbreaks. These conditions create tight differentiation among single-degree outcomes, as small shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or model bias can move the daily minimum by 1–2°C. Trader consensus clusters on 9°C and 10°C at roughly 30% each, reflecting high uncertainty in the precise minimum while discounting extremes below 7°C or above 14°C given the current guidance. Updated model runs and official observations will refine resolution criteria ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$68Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent MetService and ensemble forecasts point to overnight lows of 9–11°C in Wellington on September 15 under a northerly flow and partly cloudy skies, with limited radiative cooling due to wind mixing. NIWA’s spring outlook notes near-average or slightly above-average temperatures amid El Niño-driven westerlies that enhance variability and occasional cold outbreaks. These conditions create tight differentiation among single-degree outcomes, as small shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or model bias can move the daily minimum by 1–2°C. Trader consensus clusters on 9°C and 10°C at roughly 30% each, reflecting high uncertainty in the precise minimum while discounting extremes below 7°C or above 14°C given the current guidance. Updated model runs and official observations will refine resolution criteria ahead of market close.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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