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Politik·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Politik·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM 44%

Petro - Colombia President 36%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.6%

Takaichi - Japan PM 1.1%

Polymarket

$358,169 Vol.

Starmer - UK PM 44%

Petro - Colombia President 36%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.6%

Takaichi - Japan PM 1.1%

Polymarket

$358,169 Vol.

Starmer - UK PM

$19,928 Vol.

44%

Petro - Colombia President

$18,555 Vol.

36%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$11,954 Vol.

10%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$15,974 Vol.

1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$13,491 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$19,804 Vol.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$16,698 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$15,936 Vol.

1%

None before 2027

$19,047 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$10,499 Vol.

1%

Macron - France President

$12,124 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$15,186 Vol.

<1%

Trump - USA President

$10,315 Vol.

<1%

Putin - Russia President

$19,663 Vol.

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$12,528 Vol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$11,670 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$15,495 Vol.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$17,201 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$11,255 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$14,338 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$18,184 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$12,324 Vol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$12,155 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$13,850 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent UK developments have elevated Keir Starmer's position in trader consensus, with Labour suffering heavy local election losses that triggered over 80 MPs to demand his resignation or exit timetable, multiple ministerial departures, and analyst estimates of an 80% chance he leaves office this year. Gustavo Petro trails closely due to his fixed term ending in August 2026 after the May 31 presidential vote, where he is constitutionally barred from running again despite approval ratings near 47%. The narrow gap between these two reflects uncertainty over the precise timing of Starmer's potential ouster versus Petro's scheduled departure, while lower-probability options for leaders like Díaz-Canel face structural barriers such as limited opposition leverage. Upcoming UK leadership maneuvers or Colombia's election results could widen separation by clarifying which exit occurs first before 2027.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$358,169
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent UK developments have elevated Keir Starmer's position in trader consensus, with Labour suffering heavy local election losses that triggered over 80 MPs to demand his resignation or exit timetable, multiple ministerial departures, and analyst estimates of an 80% chance he leaves office this year. Gustavo Petro trails closely due to his fixed term ending in August 2026 after the May 31 presidential vote, where he is constitutionally barred from running again despite approval ratings near 47%. The narrow gap between these two reflects uncertainty over the precise timing of Starmer's potential ouster versus Petro's scheduled departure, while lower-probability options for leaders like Díaz-Canel face structural barriers such as limited opposition leverage. Upcoming UK leadership maneuvers or Colombia's election results could widen separation by clarifying which exit occurs first before 2027.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$358,169
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 24 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Starmer - UK PM" di 45%, diikuti oleh "Petro - Colombia President" di 36%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 45¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 45% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" telah menghasilkan $358.2K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Apr 27, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)," jelajahi 24 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" adalah "Starmer - UK PM" di 45%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 45% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Petro - Colombia President" di 36%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.