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Politik·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Politik·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM 51%

Petro - Colombia President 21%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 8.2%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 2.0%

Polymarket

$368,019 Vol.

Starmer - UK PM 51%

Petro - Colombia President 21%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 8.2%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 2.0%

Polymarket

$368,019 Vol.

Starmer - UK PM

$22,105 Vol.

51%

Petro - Colombia President

$20,583 Vol.

21%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$12,345 Vol.

8%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$21,799 Vol.

2%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$13,621 Vol.

1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$16,154 Vol.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$17,131 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$16,116 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$10,679 Vol.

1%

None before 2027

$20,658 Vol.

1%

Trump - USA President

$10,495 Vol.

<1%

Putin - Russia President

$19,743 Vol.

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$13,158 Vol.

<1%

Macron - France President

$12,204 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$15,266 Vol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$11,850 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$15,675 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$14,418 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$18,264 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$12,504 Vol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$12,235 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$13,930 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$11,335 Vol.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$17,281 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent turmoil in the UK Labour government has driven trader consensus toward Prime Minister Keir Starmer as the most likely leader to exit office before 2027, following dismal local election results, multiple cabinet resignations, and open leadership challenges from figures including Andy Burnham. These developments reflect internal party divisions and declining support less than two years after a large majority victory. Colombia President Gustavo Petro ranks next due to the constitutional end of his term ahead of the scheduled 2026 presidential election. Lower probabilities for other leaders such as Cuba’s Miguel Díaz-Canel or Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy align with the absence of comparable near-term political pressures or institutional timelines that would force departures within the window.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$368,019
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent turmoil in the UK Labour government has driven trader consensus toward Prime Minister Keir Starmer as the most likely leader to exit office before 2027, following dismal local election results, multiple cabinet resignations, and open leadership challenges from figures including Andy Burnham. These developments reflect internal party divisions and declining support less than two years after a large majority victory. Colombia President Gustavo Petro ranks next due to the constitutional end of his term ahead of the scheduled 2026 presidential election. Lower probabilities for other leaders such as Cuba’s Miguel Díaz-Canel or Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy align with the absence of comparable near-term political pressures or institutional timelines that would force departures within the window.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$368,019
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 24 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Starmer - UK PM" di 51%, diikuti oleh "Petro - Colombia President" di 21%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 51¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 51% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" telah menghasilkan $368K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Apr 27, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)," jelajahi 24 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" adalah "Starmer - UK PM" di 51%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 51% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Petro - Colombia President" di 21%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.