**Exceptional drought (D4) remains limited but entrenched in a handful of states as of early September 2026, with the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) showing roughly 1.4% of the contiguous U.S. in D4 on the September 3 map (data valid September 1).** Flash drought driven by persistent hot, dry conditions has intensified across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Upper Midwest, where above-normal temperatures have sharply raised evaporative demand and depleted soil moisture and streamflow. States currently reporting any D4 area include Arkansas, Idaho, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, and North Carolina, according to recent USDM data. The USDM, produced jointly by the National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA, NOAA, and NASA, is updated every Thursday; the map covering the week of September 8 will be released September 10 and will resolve the market based on official D4 designations. Short-term precipitation forecasts and any rapid changes in the central U.S. could influence the next assessment, though D4 thresholds require sustained severe deficits.