Heightened regional tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, including the 2026 Lebanon war that began in March, have driven U.S. security assessments for its Beirut embassy. In February 2026 the State Department ordered departure of non-emergency personnel and family members amid concerns over potential Iranian retaliation and broader conflict spillover, reducing the embassy footprint while retaining core operations. Subsequent April 2026 cessation-of-hostilities agreements and ongoing bilateral talks in Rome have produced temporary de-escalation, yet persistent border risks, Hezbollah activity, and U.S. citizen advisories to depart Lebanon sustain caution among traders. Upcoming negotiation rounds and any flare-ups in southern Lebanon remain key variables that could shift the implied probability of a fuller embassy evacuation by the market's resolution date.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiU.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?
$117,489 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
4%
$117,489 Vol.
December 31
$23,387 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. Heightened regional tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, including the 2026 Lebanon war that began in March, have driven U.S. security assessments for its Beirut embassy. In February 2026 the State Department ordered departure of non-emergency personnel and family members amid concerns over potential Iranian retaliation and broader conflict spillover, reducing the embassy footprint while retaining core operations. Subsequent April 2026 cessation-of-hostilities agreements and ongoing bilateral talks in Rome have produced temporary de-escalation, yet persistent border risks, Hezbollah activity, and U.S. citizen advisories to depart Lebanon sustain caution among traders. Upcoming negotiation rounds and any flare-ups in southern Lebanon remain key variables that could shift the implied probability of a fuller embassy evacuation by the market's resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 30, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$117,489Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 30, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. Heightened regional tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, including the 2026 Lebanon war that began in March, have driven U.S. security assessments for its Beirut embassy. In February 2026 the State Department ordered departure of non-emergency personnel and family members amid concerns over potential Iranian retaliation and broader conflict spillover, reducing the embassy footprint while retaining core operations. Subsequent April 2026 cessation-of-hostilities agreements and ongoing bilateral talks in Rome have produced temporary de-escalation, yet persistent border risks, Hezbollah activity, and U.S. citizen advisories to depart Lebanon sustain caution among traders. Upcoming negotiation rounds and any flare-ups in southern Lebanon remain key variables that could shift the implied probability of a fuller embassy evacuation by the market's resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Volume
$117,489Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 30, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Heightened regional tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, including the 2026 Lebanon war that began in March, have driven U.S. security assessments for its Beirut embassy. In February 2026 the State Department ordered departure of non-emergency personnel and family members amid concerns over potential Iranian retaliation and broader conflict spillover, reducing the embassy footprint while retaining core operations. Subsequent April 2026 cessation-of-hostilities agreements and ongoing bilateral talks in Rome have produced temporary de-escalation, yet persistent border risks, Hezbollah activity, and U.S. citizen advisories to depart Lebanon sustain caution among traders. Upcoming negotiation rounds and any flare-ups in southern Lebanon remain key variables that could shift the implied probability of a fuller embassy evacuation by the market's resolution date.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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