Traders assign a 95.7% probability to no direct US-China military clash before 2027, reflecting ongoing bilateral summits, trade truce negotiations, and military-to-military communication channels that have contained tensions despite PLA exercises around Taiwan and South China Sea frictions with US allies. Diplomatic readouts from 2025-2026 Trump-Xi and Rubio-Wang meetings emphasize crisis management and avoidance of miscalculation, while US defense planning prioritizes deterrence and allied contributions without active engagement. This consensus aligns with the lack of observable force concentrations or invasion logistics that would signal imminent escalation. A sudden Taiwan Strait incident involving US assets, accidental collision during patrols, or breakdown in high-level talks could still shift odds before the December 2026 resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiUS x China Military clash before 2027?
US x China Military clash before 2027?
4% peluang
$194,565 Vol.
$194,565 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% peluang
$194,565 Vol.
$194,565 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.7% probability to no direct US-China military clash before 2027, reflecting ongoing bilateral summits, trade truce negotiations, and military-to-military communication channels that have contained tensions despite PLA exercises around Taiwan and South China Sea frictions with US allies. Diplomatic readouts from 2025-2026 Trump-Xi and Rubio-Wang meetings emphasize crisis management and avoidance of miscalculation, while US defense planning prioritizes deterrence and allied contributions without active engagement. This consensus aligns with the lack of observable force concentrations or invasion logistics that would signal imminent escalation. A sudden Taiwan Strait incident involving US assets, accidental collision during patrols, or breakdown in high-level talks could still shift odds before the December 2026 resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$194,565Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.7% probability to no direct US-China military clash before 2027, reflecting ongoing bilateral summits, trade truce negotiations, and military-to-military communication channels that have contained tensions despite PLA exercises around Taiwan and South China Sea frictions with US allies. Diplomatic readouts from 2025-2026 Trump-Xi and Rubio-Wang meetings emphasize crisis management and avoidance of miscalculation, while US defense planning prioritizes deterrence and allied contributions without active engagement. This consensus aligns with the lack of observable force concentrations or invasion logistics that would signal imminent escalation. A sudden Taiwan Strait incident involving US assets, accidental collision during patrols, or breakdown in high-level talks could still shift odds before the December 2026 resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$194,565Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.7% probability to no direct US-China military clash before 2027, reflecting ongoing bilateral summits, trade truce negotiations, and military-to-military communication channels that have contained tensions despite PLA exercises around Taiwan and South China Sea frictions with US allies. Diplomatic readouts from 2025-2026 Trump-Xi and Rubio-Wang meetings emphasize crisis management and avoidance of miscalculation, while US defense planning prioritizes deterrence and allied contributions without active engagement. This consensus aligns with the lack of observable force concentrations or invasion logistics that would signal imminent escalation. A sudden Taiwan Strait incident involving US assets, accidental collision during patrols, or breakdown in high-level talks could still shift odds before the December 2026 resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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