Ongoing diplomatic engagement and institutional frameworks, including the U.S.-China Board of Trade and Investment Council established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi meeting, underpin the elevated trader consensus around an agreement by year-end. These bodies are advancing reciprocal tariff relief on roughly $30 billion in goods per side, while the Kuala Lumpur truce—suspending elevated duties until November 10, 2026, and related Chinese measures through December 31—provides a structured timeline for extension or formalization. Recent calibrated U.S. actions, such as the planned 7.5 percent overcapacity tariff keeping cumulative rates near the 20 percent cap acknowledged by Beijing, alongside a scheduled September summit in Washington, signal continued negotiation momentum without major escalation. Primary source statements from both governments emphasize purchase commitments and market access talks that align with resolution within the resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
85% peluang
$235,312 Vol.
$235,312 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
85% peluang
$235,312 Vol.
$235,312 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing diplomatic engagement and institutional frameworks, including the U.S.-China Board of Trade and Investment Council established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi meeting, underpin the elevated trader consensus around an agreement by year-end. These bodies are advancing reciprocal tariff relief on roughly $30 billion in goods per side, while the Kuala Lumpur truce—suspending elevated duties until November 10, 2026, and related Chinese measures through December 31—provides a structured timeline for extension or formalization. Recent calibrated U.S. actions, such as the planned 7.5 percent overcapacity tariff keeping cumulative rates near the 20 percent cap acknowledged by Beijing, alongside a scheduled September summit in Washington, signal continued negotiation momentum without major escalation. Primary source statements from both governments emphasize purchase commitments and market access talks that align with resolution within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Pasar Dibuka: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volume
$235,312Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing diplomatic engagement and institutional frameworks, including the U.S.-China Board of Trade and Investment Council established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi meeting, underpin the elevated trader consensus around an agreement by year-end. These bodies are advancing reciprocal tariff relief on roughly $30 billion in goods per side, while the Kuala Lumpur truce—suspending elevated duties until November 10, 2026, and related Chinese measures through December 31—provides a structured timeline for extension or formalization. Recent calibrated U.S. actions, such as the planned 7.5 percent overcapacity tariff keeping cumulative rates near the 20 percent cap acknowledged by Beijing, alongside a scheduled September summit in Washington, signal continued negotiation momentum without major escalation. Primary source statements from both governments emphasize purchase commitments and market access talks that align with resolution within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$235,312Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic engagement and institutional frameworks, including the U.S.-China Board of Trade and Investment Council established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi meeting, underpin the elevated trader consensus around an agreement by year-end. These bodies are advancing reciprocal tariff relief on roughly $30 billion in goods per side, while the Kuala Lumpur truce—suspending elevated duties until November 10, 2026, and related Chinese measures through December 31—provides a structured timeline for extension or formalization. Recent calibrated U.S. actions, such as the planned 7.5 percent overcapacity tariff keeping cumulative rates near the 20 percent cap acknowledged by Beijing, alongside a scheduled September summit in Washington, signal continued negotiation momentum without major escalation. Primary source statements from both governments emphasize purchase commitments and market access talks that align with resolution within the resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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