Recent polling from early May shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with first-round support near 39 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 33–37 percent, while smaller candidates split the remaining votes in a polarized field. Brazil’s runoff system requires more than 50 percent of valid votes on October 4 for an outright win, and the persistent fragmentation plus high mutual rejection between leading contenders has blocked any consolidation that could push one candidate over that threshold. Traders therefore assign an 86 percent implied probability to no outright victory, consistent with historical patterns where runoff rounds have been needed in most recent cycles absent major last-minute shifts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$65,530 Vol.
$65,530 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
$65,530 Vol.
$65,530 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from early May shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with first-round support near 39 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 33–37 percent, while smaller candidates split the remaining votes in a polarized field. Brazil’s runoff system requires more than 50 percent of valid votes on October 4 for an outright win, and the persistent fragmentation plus high mutual rejection between leading contenders has blocked any consolidation that could push one candidate over that threshold. Traders therefore assign an 86 percent implied probability to no outright victory, consistent with historical patterns where runoff rounds have been needed in most recent cycles absent major last-minute shifts.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$65,530Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from early May shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with first-round support near 39 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 33–37 percent, while smaller candidates split the remaining votes in a polarized field. Brazil’s runoff system requires more than 50 percent of valid votes on October 4 for an outright win, and the persistent fragmentation plus high mutual rejection between leading contenders has blocked any consolidation that could push one candidate over that threshold. Traders therefore assign an 86 percent implied probability to no outright victory, consistent with historical patterns where runoff rounds have been needed in most recent cycles absent major last-minute shifts.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$65,530Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling from early May shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with first-round support near 39 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 33–37 percent, while smaller candidates split the remaining votes in a polarized field. Brazil’s runoff system requires more than 50 percent of valid votes on October 4 for an outright win, and the persistent fragmentation plus high mutual rejection between leading contenders has blocked any consolidation that could push one candidate over that threshold. Traders therefore assign an 86 percent implied probability to no outright victory, consistent with historical patterns where runoff rounds have been needed in most recent cycles absent major last-minute shifts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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