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Politik·Kebijakan Luar Negeri

Akankah Tiongkok menginvasi Taiwan pada akhir 2026?

icon for Akankah Tiongkok menginvasi Taiwan pada akhir 2026?
Politik·Kebijakan Luar Negeri

Akankah Tiongkok menginvasi Taiwan pada akhir 2026?

Sep 30

Dec 31

Jun 30, 2027

Dec 31, 2027

Sep 30

Dec 31

Jun 30, 2027

Dec 31, 2027

Ya

4% peluang
Polymarket

$39,747,089 Vol.

Ya

4% peluang
Polymarket

$39,747,089 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China's military has sustained elevated but non-escalatory activity in the Taiwan Strait through mid-2026, including repeated ADIZ incursions, joint readiness patrols, and large-scale drills such as Justice Mission-2025, without corresponding amphibious force buildups or invasion indicators. This pattern, combined with Beijing's focus on economic pressures, diplomatic signaling, and regional operations short of conflict, underpins trader consensus that a full-scale invasion remains improbable before year-end. Deterrence from U.S. arms commitments, alliance coordination, and high operational costs further reinforces the 96% implied probability on No. Realistic shifts could still arise from an abrupt Taiwanese sovereignty move, sudden U.S. policy change, or internal PRC leadership decision, though none appear imminent within the narrow remaining window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$39,747,089
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China's military has sustained elevated but non-escalatory activity in the Taiwan Strait through mid-2026, including repeated ADIZ incursions, joint readiness patrols, and large-scale drills such as Justice Mission-2025, without corresponding amphibious force buildups or invasion indicators. This pattern, combined with Beijing's focus on economic pressures, diplomatic signaling, and regional operations short of conflict, underpins trader consensus that a full-scale invasion remains improbable before year-end. Deterrence from U.S. arms commitments, alliance coordination, and high operational costs further reinforces the 96% implied probability on No. Realistic shifts could still arise from an abrupt Taiwanese sovereignty move, sudden U.S. policy change, or internal PRC leadership decision, though none appear imminent within the narrow remaining window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$39,747,089
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Akankah Tiongkok menginvasi Taiwan pada akhir 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 2 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Apakah China akan menyerang Taiwan sebelum akhir tahun 2026?" di 4%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 4¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 4% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Akankah Tiongkok menginvasi Taiwan pada akhir 2026?" telah menghasilkan $39.7 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jul 24, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Akankah Tiongkok menginvasi Taiwan pada akhir 2026?," jelajahi 2 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Ini adalah pasar yang sangat terbuka. Pemimpin saat ini untuk "Akankah Tiongkok menginvasi Taiwan pada akhir 2026?" adalah "Apakah China akan menyerang Taiwan sebelum akhir tahun 2026?" di hanya 4%. Tanpa hasil yang menguasai mayoritas kuat, trader melihat ini sebagai sangat tidak pasti, yang bisa menghadirkan peluang trading unik. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time, jadi tandai halaman ini untuk menyaksikan bagaimana probabilitas berkembang.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Akankah Tiongkok menginvasi Taiwan pada akhir 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.