China's leadership continues to prioritize non-military pressure through sustained coast guard patrols, air defense identification zone incursions, and joint naval activities east of Taiwan, while U.S. intelligence assessments indicate no current plan for a 2027 invasion or fixed unification timeline. With only months remaining until the market's December 31, 2026 cutoff, traders assign 96.2% probability to no full-scale military offensive due to the absence of observable large-scale amphibious preparations, logistical buildup, or shifts away from gray-zone coercion. Ongoing Taiwanese defense exercises and reports highlighting potential economic costs further reinforce the current consensus. A rapid escalation from an isolated maritime incident or unexpected policy reversal could still alter the trajectory before year-end, though such developments remain low-probability based on recent patterns.