Recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing underscored Taiwan tensions, with Xi warning of conflict risks from US support while Trump downplayed war prospects, signaling diplomatic preference amid trade truce talks and Iran war distractions. US intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment confirms China lacks commitment to a 2027 invasion timeline, absent large-scale PLA drills simulating attack since late 2025. Trader consensus at 92.5% "No" reflects high economic costs of military action, robust US deterrence via arms sales, and Taiwan's defensive upgrades like new missile-capable coast guard vessels unveiled May 15. Late-breaking escalations, such as blockade rehearsals or independence moves, could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAkankah Tiongkok menginvasi Taiwan pada akhir 2026?
Akankah Tiongkok menginvasi Taiwan pada akhir 2026?
Ya
$23,356,221 Vol.
$23,356,221 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Dapatkan 4%
Ya
$23,356,221 Vol.
$23,356,221 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Dapatkan 4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing underscored Taiwan tensions, with Xi warning of conflict risks from US support while Trump downplayed war prospects, signaling diplomatic preference amid trade truce talks and Iran war distractions. US intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment confirms China lacks commitment to a 2027 invasion timeline, absent large-scale PLA drills simulating attack since late 2025. Trader consensus at 92.5% "No" reflects high economic costs of military action, robust US deterrence via arms sales, and Taiwan's defensive upgrades like new missile-capable coast guard vessels unveiled May 15. Late-breaking escalations, such as blockade rehearsals or independence moves, could shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$23,356,221Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing underscored Taiwan tensions, with Xi warning of conflict risks from US support while Trump downplayed war prospects, signaling diplomatic preference amid trade truce talks and Iran war distractions. US intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment confirms China lacks commitment to a 2027 invasion timeline, absent large-scale PLA drills simulating attack since late 2025. Trader consensus at 92.5% "No" reflects high economic costs of military action, robust US deterrence via arms sales, and Taiwan's defensive upgrades like new missile-capable coast guard vessels unveiled May 15. Late-breaking escalations, such as blockade rehearsals or independence moves, could shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$23,356,221Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing underscored Taiwan tensions, with Xi warning of conflict risks from US support while Trump downplayed war prospects, signaling diplomatic preference amid trade truce talks and Iran war distractions. US intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment confirms China lacks commitment to a 2027 invasion timeline, absent large-scale PLA drills simulating attack since late 2025. Trader consensus at 92.5% "No" reflects high economic costs of military action, robust US deterrence via arms sales, and Taiwan's defensive upgrades like new missile-capable coast guard vessels unveiled May 15. Late-breaking escalations, such as blockade rehearsals or independence moves, could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan