Ukrainian forces have conducted successful counteroffensive operations in the Lyman and Oleksandrivka directions since early 2026, including Operation Vivaldi, which has cleared Russian infiltrators from multiple settlements. As of September 19, Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps officials confirmed clearing Rai-Oleksandrivka itself after prior Russian infiltration attempts. Russian forces continue limited offensive actions and infiltration efforts in the broader sector but have recorded minimal verified advances or territorial consolidation near the settlement in recent weeks. These developments, set against slower Russian gains across Donetsk Oblast and Ukrainian efforts to disrupt enemy logistics and drone operations, shape trader assessments of Russian prospects for establishing control by market resolution dates. Upcoming frontline reports and any renewed Russian mechanized pushes remain key variables.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?
$187,389 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
December 31
21%
September 30
2%
$187,389 Vol.
December 31
$39,610 Vol.
21%
September 30
$30,781 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.810403° N, 37.851396° E in Rai-Oleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka1.png
Intersection Location in Rai-Oleksandrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka2.png
Rai-Oleksandrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/98NiyN9BC3XQfy3N7
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Ukrainian forces have conducted successful counteroffensive operations in the Lyman and Oleksandrivka directions since early 2026, including Operation Vivaldi, which has cleared Russian infiltrators from multiple settlements. As of September 19, Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps officials confirmed clearing Rai-Oleksandrivka itself after prior Russian infiltration attempts. Russian forces continue limited offensive actions and infiltration efforts in the broader sector but have recorded minimal verified advances or territorial consolidation near the settlement in recent weeks. These developments, set against slower Russian gains across Donetsk Oblast and Ukrainian efforts to disrupt enemy logistics and drone operations, shape trader assessments of Russian prospects for establishing control by market resolution dates. Upcoming frontline reports and any renewed Russian mechanized pushes remain key variables.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.810403° N, 37.851396° E in Rai-Oleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka1.png
Intersection Location in Rai-Oleksandrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka2.png
Rai-Oleksandrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/98NiyN9BC3XQfy3N7
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka1.png
Intersection Location in Rai-Oleksandrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka2.png
Rai-Oleksandrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/98NiyN9BC3XQfy3N7
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 24, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$187,389Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jun 24, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.810403° N, 37.851396° E in Rai-Oleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka1.png
Intersection Location in Rai-Oleksandrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka2.png
Rai-Oleksandrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/98NiyN9BC3XQfy3N7
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Ukrainian forces have conducted successful counteroffensive operations in the Lyman and Oleksandrivka directions since early 2026, including Operation Vivaldi, which has cleared Russian infiltrators from multiple settlements. As of September 19, Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps officials confirmed clearing Rai-Oleksandrivka itself after prior Russian infiltration attempts. Russian forces continue limited offensive actions and infiltration efforts in the broader sector but have recorded minimal verified advances or territorial consolidation near the settlement in recent weeks. These developments, set against slower Russian gains across Donetsk Oblast and Ukrainian efforts to disrupt enemy logistics and drone operations, shape trader assessments of Russian prospects for establishing control by market resolution dates. Upcoming frontline reports and any renewed Russian mechanized pushes remain key variables.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.810403° N, 37.851396° E in Rai-Oleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka1.png
Intersection Location in Rai-Oleksandrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka2.png
Rai-Oleksandrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/98NiyN9BC3XQfy3N7
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka1.png
Intersection Location in Rai-Oleksandrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka2.png
Rai-Oleksandrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/98NiyN9BC3XQfy3N7
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$187,389Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jun 24, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukrainian forces have conducted successful counteroffensive operations in the Lyman and Oleksandrivka directions since early 2026, including Operation Vivaldi, which has cleared Russian infiltrators from multiple settlements. As of September 19, Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps officials confirmed clearing Rai-Oleksandrivka itself after prior Russian infiltration attempts. Russian forces continue limited offensive actions and infiltration efforts in the broader sector but have recorded minimal verified advances or territorial consolidation near the settlement in recent weeks. These developments, set against slower Russian gains across Donetsk Oblast and Ukrainian efforts to disrupt enemy logistics and drone operations, shape trader assessments of Russian prospects for establishing control by market resolution dates. Upcoming frontline reports and any renewed Russian mechanized pushes remain key variables.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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