Russian forces have made only incremental gains in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk and adjacent sectors through September 2026, with activity concentrated around Chasiv Yar, Lyman, and western Zaporizhia rather than Kharkiv Oblast locations such as Moskovka. Ukrainian counter-moves, including targeted strikes on Russian logistics and air defenses, combined with static frontline conditions in much of the northeast, have limited Russian momentum toward specific settlements like Moskovka. Trader assessments reflect the pace of Russian advances observed on ISW maps, where territorial control shifts remain modest and localized amid ongoing artillery exchanges, drone campaigns, and reinforcement efforts on both sides. Scheduled factors that could influence near-term probabilities include sustained Russian long-range strike operations and any Ukrainian responses that alter resource allocation along the Kharkiv axis.