Trump traders price "No" at 90.5% on creating a tariff dividend—a proposed $2,000 payment to low- and middle-income Americans funded by import tariff revenue—by June 30, reflecting no legislative progress or executive action since President Trump's November 2025 announcement. Recent developments, including April 2026 White House proclamations strengthening steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs under Section 232, plus Section 122 global tariffs effective February, have boosted revenue projections to $1.3 trillion over a decade per Yale Budget Lab estimates, yet no bills for dividend disbursement have advanced in Congress, no agency mechanisms announced, and prior markets for 2025 or Q1 2026 resolved No. With under six weeks remaining, traders see insurmountable hurdles like appropriations requirements absent late-breaking fiscal maneuvers.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$11,462 Vol.
$11,462 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$11,462 Vol.
$11,462 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump traders price "No" at 90.5% on creating a tariff dividend—a proposed $2,000 payment to low- and middle-income Americans funded by import tariff revenue—by June 30, reflecting no legislative progress or executive action since President Trump's November 2025 announcement. Recent developments, including April 2026 White House proclamations strengthening steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs under Section 232, plus Section 122 global tariffs effective February, have boosted revenue projections to $1.3 trillion over a decade per Yale Budget Lab estimates, yet no bills for dividend disbursement have advanced in Congress, no agency mechanisms announced, and prior markets for 2025 or Q1 2026 resolved No. With under six weeks remaining, traders see insurmountable hurdles like appropriations requirements absent late-breaking fiscal maneuvers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ET
Volume
$11,462Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump traders price "No" at 90.5% on creating a tariff dividend—a proposed $2,000 payment to low- and middle-income Americans funded by import tariff revenue—by June 30, reflecting no legislative progress or executive action since President Trump's November 2025 announcement. Recent developments, including April 2026 White House proclamations strengthening steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs under Section 232, plus Section 122 global tariffs effective February, have boosted revenue projections to $1.3 trillion over a decade per Yale Budget Lab estimates, yet no bills for dividend disbursement have advanced in Congress, no agency mechanisms announced, and prior markets for 2025 or Q1 2026 resolved No. With under six weeks remaining, traders see insurmountable hurdles like appropriations requirements absent late-breaking fiscal maneuvers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,462Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump traders price "No" at 90.5% on creating a tariff dividend—a proposed $2,000 payment to low- and middle-income Americans funded by import tariff revenue—by June 30, reflecting no legislative progress or executive action since President Trump's November 2025 announcement. Recent developments, including April 2026 White House proclamations strengthening steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs under Section 232, plus Section 122 global tariffs effective February, have boosted revenue projections to $1.3 trillion over a decade per Yale Budget Lab estimates, yet no bills for dividend disbursement have advanced in Congress, no agency mechanisms announced, and prior markets for 2025 or Q1 2026 resolved No. With under six weeks remaining, traders see insurmountable hurdles like appropriations requirements absent late-breaking fiscal maneuvers.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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